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Stock Market Outlook for Wed Aug 2 2023 – Confirmed MACD Down Signal

Aug 2, 2023 | Stock Market Outlook

Day’s Summary

On Tuesday stocks wandered between gains and losses but in the end the SPX and NASDAQ both closed lower. The lower close confirmed last Thursday’s MACD down signal.

The SPX for the first day of August, closed down just 12 points at 4576. The NASDAQ fell 62 points, closing at 14283.

Let’s review the technical indicators from the close on Tuesday to see what to expect for Wednesday’s trading.


Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Tue Aug 1 2023

The index closed slightly lower and below the Upper Bollinger Band. It is still rallying above all major moving averages which is bullish.

The closing candlestick on Tuesday is bearish for Wednesday.

The 21, 50, 100 and 200 day moving averages are continuing to climb which is bullish.

The Lower Bollinger Band continued above the 50 day moving average which is bearish. The Upper Bollinger Band is still rising which is bullish.

Overall the index is still bullish but showing continued signs of being overbought.

Stock Market Outlook review of Tue Aug 1 2023


Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review

Momentum: Momentum is falling and positive.

  • Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.
MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Thursday Jul 27. On Tuesday the down signal was finally confirmed.

  • Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. 
Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling and negative.

  • Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.
Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a weak up signal in place. It is overbought.

  • Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.
Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling.

  • Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor.  It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.
Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling.

  • Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.

Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels

4600 is resistance
4575 is resistance
4550 is resistance
4525 is resistance
4500 is resistance
4485 is resistance
4470 is resistance
4450 is support
4435 is support
4420 is support
4400 is support
4390 is support
4370 is support
4350 is support
4340 is support
4325 is support
4310 is support
4300 is support
4290 is support
4275 is support
4250 is support
4240 is support
4225 is support
4210 is support
4200 is good support


Stock Market Outlook for Wed Aug 2 2023 

For Wednesday the S&P technical indicators are biased lower.

Investors should expect some bounce attempts on Wednesday but a lower close is anticipated for the second day of August.


Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events

Wednesday:

8:15 ADP employment







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