Day’s Summary
On Tuesday poor economic news out of China combined with better than expected earnings from Home Depot Stock (HD) and stronger overall domestic sales, gave negative mixed messages to investors. Investors decided it was better to sell rather than wait and see if the selling is overdone.
For the S&P the index fell to its lowest level since late March. It broke through and closed below the 50 day moving average.
Let’s review the SPX index from Tuesday to see what to expect for Wednesday.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Tue Aug 15 2023
The index closed below the 50 day moving average for the first time since March. This is bearish and the closing candlestick is also bearish for Wednesday.
The closing candlestick on Tuesday is bearish but also signaling stocks are still oversold.
The 21 day moving average is turned sideways. The 50, 100 and 200 day moving averages are continuing to climb which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band fell slightly but is still bearish. The Upper Bollinger Band is turning sideways which could be signaling a potential bounce. A new Bollinger Bands Squeeze is still ongoing. At present the squeeze looks like stocks will move lower but often stocks actually dip and then recover to move higher.
Stock Market Outlook review of Tue Aug 15 2023
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is falling and negative. It is signaling oversold.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Thursday Jul 27. On Tue Aug 15 2023 the down signal was stronger. It is at a level where often we will see a strong bounce.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling, negative and trying to bounce from oversold.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place. It is very oversold and signaling there is a bounce coming.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling sharply and entering oversold readings.
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Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling and deeply oversold.
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Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 4600 is resistance |
| 4575 is resistance |
| 4550 is resistance |
| 4525 is resistance |
| 4500 is support |
| 4485 is support |
| 4470 is support |
| 4450 is support |
| 4435 is support |
| 4420 is support |
| 4400 is support |
| 4390 is support |
| 4370 is support |
| 4350 is support |
| 4340 is support |
| 4325 is support |
| 4310 is support |
| 4300 is support |
| 4290 is support |
| 4275 is support |
| 4250 is support |
| 4240 is support |
| 4225 is support |
| 4210 is support |
| 4200 is good support |
Stock Market Outlook for Wed Aug 16 2023
For Wednesday the technical indicators are still signaling stocks are oversold but there is more downside before stocks can bounce.
The day will end negative for the S&P and NASDAQ on Wednesday.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Wednesday:
8:30 Housing starts
8:30 Building permits
9:15 Industrial production
2:00 FOMC minutes of July meeting.
10:00 Business inventories
10:00 NAHB builders confidence index