Prior Trading Day Summary:
On Tuesday the PPI (Producer Price Index) numbers were weaker than expected and once again investors pushed stocks higher in anticipation that the Fed will cut interest rates by September. On Wednesday investors get the latest CPI numbers (Consumer Price Index). If they too are lower, the index will continue its advance.
Stocks closed at the highs for the day on Tuesday which leave many overbought heading into Wednesday’s open.
The SPX rose 90 points for a 1.68% gain to close at 5434.
The NASDAQ soared 407 points for a 2.43% gain to end the day at 17,187, back above 17000.
Let’s review the closing technical indicators from Tue Aug 13 2024 to see what the signals advise for Wed Aug 14 2024.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Tue Aug 13 2024
The index held above 5300 for a fourth day which is bullish.
The closing candlestick is bullish although it is signaling that dips are likely with many stocks overbought as of Tuesday’s close.
The 21 day moving average is falling lower as the sell signal continues for the SPX. This is bearish.
The 50 day moving average is falling. This is also bearish.
The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 5305 which is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is slowing its uptrend but still closed higher at 5084 which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is below the 100 day moving average but no longer falling. Instead it is turned sideways which could be bullish.
The Upper Bollinger Band is still falling which is bearish.
The S&P chart is more bearish than bullish but there are a growing number of bullish signals for Wednesday for the SPX.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Tue Aug 13 2024
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is rising, still negative but not oversold.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Thur July 18. On Tue Aug 13 2024 the down signal lost more strength as you can see in the histogram. The histogram could turn positive this week.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising and positive.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place and rising.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising and positive.
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Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising signaling Wednesday will end higher.
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Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 5500 is resistance |
| 5470 is resistance |
| 5450 is resistance |
| 5425 is resistance |
| 5400 is resistance |
| 5375 is resistance |
| 5350 is resistance |
| 5325 is resistance |
| 5310 is resistance |
| 5300 is resistance |
| 5275 is resistance |
| 5250 is support |
| 5225 is support |
| 5200 is support |
| 5175 is support |
| 5150 is support |
| 5125 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Wed Aug 14 2024
For Wednesday the technical indicators are rising and there are more signals that the index will continue its advance.
If the CPI numbers are weaker than expected, Tuesday’s rally will continue.
For Wednesday investors should expect some overbought dips in the SPX but a higher close to end the day.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
2:00 Monthly federal budget rose as estimated to -241 billion.
Tuesday:
8:30 Producer price index (PPI) was lower to 0.1%
8:30 Core PPI rose to 0.3%
8:30 PPI year-over-year came in lower at 2.2%
8:30 Core PPI year-over-year was higher at 3.3%
Wednesday:
8:30 Consumer price index is estimated at 0.2%
8:30 CPI year-over-year is estimated at 3.0%
8:30 Core CPI is expected to rise to 0.2%
8:30 Core CPI year-over-year is expected to dip to 3.2%