Prior Trading Day Summary
On Tue Aug 12 2025 stocks moved higher on the back of lower than anticipated CPI numbers. To be clear the numbers didn’t show much in the way of declining inflation, just not rising inflation. The CPI year-over-year stayed unchanged at 2.7%, not lower but also not higher. Core CPI rose to 0.3% from 0.2% and core CPI year-over-year rose to 3.1% from 2.9% prior. The monthly federal budget came in higher than estimated at $291.1 billion.
But the CPI numbers were enough for most investors and some analysts to point to the Fed as having to reduce interest rates in September, especially following the July dismal non-farm payroll numbers.
All of this was enough for the markets to rally strongly.
The S&P closed up 72 points to 6445 on 5.2 billion shares traded. There were 145 new 52 week highs as 79% of all stocks rose on the SPX.
The NASDAQ rose 296 points to close at 21682 on 8.6 billion shares traded. There were 301 new 52 week highs with 71% of all stocks rising on Tuesday.
Both indexes made new all-time highs on Tuesday.
Lets review the closing technical indicators from Tue Aug 12 2025 to see what they predict for Wed Aug 13 2025.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Tue Aug 12 2025
The index closed above the 21 day moving average and at the Upper Bollinger Band. This is bullish.
The closing candlestick is bullish for Wednesday but with no shadows which suggests the market is getting oversold.
The 21 day moving average is rising and closed at 6335 which is bullish.
The 50 day moving average is rising and closed at 6197 which is bullish.
The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 6049 which is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is rising and closed at 5884 which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is turning sideways which is bullish. The Upper Bollinger Band is moving higher which is bullish. The Bollinger Bands Squeeze while still in play, looks like it may end this week with stocks moving higher.
The SPX chart is more bullish than bearish for Wednesday.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Tue Aug 12 2025
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is rising and once again positive.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Tue Jul 15. On Tue Aug 12 2025 the down signal lost more strength and could issue an up signal on Wednesday if the index closes higher.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising.
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| Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising signaling a higher close for Wednesday. Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline. |
Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 6450 is resistance |
| 6425 is resistance |
| 6400 is resistance |
| 6390 is resistance |
| 6365 is resistance |
| 6350 is resistance |
| 6325 is resistance |
| 6300 is resistance |
| 6250 is resistance |
| 6225 is resistance |
| 6200 is resistance |
| 6175 is resistance |
| 6150 is resistance |
| 6125 is resistance |
| 6150 is support |
| 6125 is support |
| 6100 is support |
| 6075 is support |
| 6050 is support |
| 6025 is support |
| 6000 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Wed Aug 13 2025
Tuesday’s euphoria over the CPI numbers may be a bit overdone according to the technical indicators. For Wednesday the morning could start higher but then move lower into a choppy session as investors take some profits after yesterday’s rally to new highs. The close is expected to still be higher.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
No reports
Tuesday:
6:00 NFIB Optimism index rose to 100.3, well above estimates
8:30 Consumer Price Index for July is fell to 0.2% from 0.3% prior
8:30 CPI year-over-year stayed at 2.7% unchanged
8:30 Core CPI rose as estimated to 0.3%
8:30 Core CPI year-over-year rose to 3.1% as estimated, above 2.9% prior
Wednesday:
No economic reports but 3 Fed Presidents speak throughout the day. We may hear more about rate cuts which will support stocks.