Prior Trading Day Summary:
On Tuesday stocks sold lower as Treasury yields rose on a bigger jump in Factory Orders than expected plus a rise in the price of oil. With investors spooked, they sold stocks lower in a wide sell-off.
The SPX closed down 38 points to 5205.
The NASDAQ fell 156 17 points to close at 16,240.
Selling was broad-based with 69% of all volume on the SPX being traded to the downside. The NASDAQ also saw 70% of all volume being traded lower.
Let’s review the closing technical indicators on Tue Apr 2 2024 to see what to expect for Wed Apr 3 2024.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Tue Apr 2 2024
The index closed well below the Upper Bollinger Band and just above the 21 day moving average. This is bearish.
The closing candlestick is signaling a bounce should be expected off the 21 day moving average which the candlestick closed just above.
The 21 day moving average is moving higher which is bullish. It is at 5177 on the SPX.
The 50 day moving average is rising and at 5063, which is bullish.
The 100 and 200 day moving averages are climbing which is bullish. The 200 day is at 4679 on the SPX which is bullish.
The Bollinger Bands are still in a Bollinger Bands Squeeze. The Lower Bollinger Band is above the 50 day moving average and starting to turn sideways which is bearish. The Upper Bollinger Band is starting to turn sideways as well. This is bearish.
The S&P chart is more bearish than bullish for Wednesday.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Tue Apr 2 2024 – Chart courtesy TradingView
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is falling and positive.
|
MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Thu Mar 28. On Tue Apr 2 2024 an unconfirmed down signal was generated but needs to be confirmed.
|
Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling.
|
Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a down signal in place and is overbought.
|
Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling and has turned negative.
|
Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling indicating Wednesday will close lower for stocks.
|
Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 5275 is resistance |
| 5250 is resistance |
| 5225 is resistance |
| 5200 is resistance |
| 5190 is resistance |
| 5175 is resistance |
| 5150 is resistance |
| 5125 is resistance |
| 5115 is resistance |
| 5100 is support |
| 5075 is support |
| 5050 is support |
| 5025 is support |
| 5000 is light support |
| 4990 is light support |
| 4975 is light support |
| 4950 is support |
| 4925 is support |
| 4915 is support |
| 4900 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Wed Apr 3 2024
For Wed Apr 3 2024 the technical indicators have turned bearish and are signaling lower for Wednesday.
For Tuesday there is nothing major in the economic reports to swing markets. Due to this the bulls still have the advantage but they will have trouble pushing a lot higher.
I am expecting a lower close on Tuesday and some potential trades in shelters.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
The major event this week is the March non-farm payroll numbers due out on Friday at 8:30.
Monday:
9:45 S&P USA manufacturing PMI is expected to be unchanged at 52.5 but was 51.9
10:00 Consumer spending is expected to rise to 0.7% but fell to -0.3%
10:00 ISM manufacturing is expected to rise to 48.1% from 47.8% prior but rose to 50.3%
Tuesday:
10:00 Factory orders are expected to rise to 1% but rose to 1.4%
10:00 Job openings are expected to slip slightly to 8.8 million from 8.9 million prior. It came in at 8.8 million.
Auto sales are expected at any time during the day.
Wednesday:
8:15 ADP employment is expected at 155,000
9:45 S&P services PMI is expected unchanged at 51.7
10:00 ISM services are expected to climb to 52.7%