Stock Market Outlook for Wed Apr 28 2021 – Unconfirmed MACD Down Signal

On Tuesday the S&P duplicated Monday’s intraday swings and ended the day flat closing at 4186.

The most important signal on Tuesday was the down signal from the MACD technical indicator. Let’s review Tuesday’s closing signals to see what to expect for Wednesday.

Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Tue Apr 27 2021 

The Upper Bollinger Band is continuing to move sideways which is bearish and the Lower Bollinger Band is still moving higher above the 100 day and is approaching the 50 day moving average, which is also bearish. If this trend continues we will see a new Bollinger Bands Squeeze this week.

The closing candlestick on Tuesday is bearish for Wednesday.

The 21 day moving average is climbing higher, further away from the 50 day moving average which is bullish.

The 50, 100 and 200 day moving averages are all climbing higher.

Overall the S&P chart is bullish but there are bearish signals continuing to warn investors.

Stock Market Outlook review of Tue Apr 27 2021

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:

Momentum: Momentum is positive and falling.

• Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.

MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Monday March 29 2021. On Tuesday the day ended with a weak and unconfirmed down signal.

• Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. 

Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising.

• Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.

Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place for a second day.

Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.

Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is trending sideways.

• Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor.  It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.

Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling.

• Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.

Support and Resistance Levels To Be Aware Of:

4200 is resistance

4150 is light support

4100 is light support

4070 is very light support

4050 is light support

4000 is Support

3900 is support and the 50 day is just above this at 3933.

3850 is support

3800 is support and the 100 day is just above this level.

3750 is good support

3700 is light support

3680 is light support

3600 is strong support and the 200 day is just above this level.

 Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Wed Apr 28 2021 

On Wednesday we may see a pop thanks to excellent earnings from Alphabet Stock (GOOGL), Microsoft Stock (MSFT), VISA Stock (V), Advanced Micro Devices Stock (AMD), Mondelez Stock (MDLZ) and others. At the same time there were a number of surprises to the downside including Pinterest Stock (PINS), Starbucks Stock (SBUX), Amgen Stock (AMGN) among others.

Aside from the earnings though, the technical indicators are rather mixed for the start of trading with a new unconfirmed down signal from Moving Average Convergence / Divergence technical tool. This tool correctly announced the latest rally back on March 29 and is one of the more accurate technical tools. If markets are weaker on Wednesday, we will see the down signal be confirmed.

Meanwhile there are 3 signals in total pointing lower, 2 still rising and a third pointing sideways or unchanged for Wednesday.

The outlook for Wednesday then is for another choppy day of trading with a slight bias to the downside by the end of the day.

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