Prior Trading Day Summary:
On Tue Apr 22 2025 comments that seemed to convey a sense of a deal with China on trade and tariffs sent stocks soaring. It was a massive rally that recovered the enormous losses of Monday.
The SPX rose 129 points to close at 5287, higher than Thursday’s close last week. Volume rose to 4.7 billion with 89% of that volume trading to the upside. 90% of all stocks rose.
The NASDAQ rose 429 points to close at 16300, also higher than last Thursday’s close. Volume rose to 7.3 billion with 81% of it rising and 80% of all stocks rallying.
Comments from President Trump after hours on Tuesday indicating he has no intention of firing Fed Chair Powell, should help jump start the open on Wednesday.
Let’s review the technical indicators from the close on Tue Apr 22 2025 to see what they predict for Wed Apr 23 2025.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Tue Apr 22 2025
The index closed below the 200 day moving average again and below Wednesday’s (Feb 9) high which is bearish.
The closing candlestick is bullish for Wednesday and indicates the rally will continue today.
The 21 day moving average is falling and closed at 5421. The 21 day moving average fell below the 50 day on Friday Mar 7. It fell below the 100 day on Thursday Mar 13 for a second down signal and on Friday Mar 28 it fell below the 200 day for a third down signal.
The 50 day moving average is falling and closed at 5672 which is bearish. The 50 day moving average fell below the 100 day on Tue April 15. which issues a 4th down signal on the SPX. It is now nearing the 200 day moving average.
The 100 day moving average is falling and closed at 5699 which is bearish.
The 200 day moving average is falling and closed at 5646 which is bearish.
All the moving averages are continuing their decline with four down signals so far in the sell-off.
The Lower Bollinger Band is falling. The Upper Bollinger Band is also falling which is bearish.
For Wednesday the SPX chart is bearish but the closing candlestick is signaling investors should see the rally continue today.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Tue Apr 22 2025
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is rising and positive.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Thu Apr 3 2025. On Tue Apr 22 2025 a new unconfirmed up signal was issued. A higher close today will turn this into an up signal.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising and negative.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a weak down signal still in place.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising and not oversold.
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| Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising and signaling a higher close today. Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline. |
Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 5700 is resistance |
| 5650 is resistance |
| 5630 is resistance |
| 5600 is resistance |
| 5550 is resistance |
| 5500 is resistance |
| 5450 is resistance |
| 5400 is resistance |
| 5359 is resistance |
| 5300 is resistance |
| 5230 is support |
| 5000 is support |
| 4770 is support |
| 4680 is support |
| 4500 is support |
| 4365 is support |
| 4150 is support |
| 4000 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Wed Apr 23 2025
Investors will want to get back into stocks and Wednesday we should see a second rally. I am expecting better volume. With President Trump pulling back from his criticism of Fed Chair Powell, stocks should open higher today and then rally. Weakness may appear over the lunch hour but the close will be higher.
Earnings from Tesla were poor but the stock hardly budged after hours. That could change today. If the stock moves higher, stocks will rally strongly. If Tesla’s stock falls, stocks will still rally but not as strongly and we could see a flattening of the rally over the lunch hour. If there is news considered negative on China and an expected trade arrangement, the rally could fail once again. Any sign of a trade deal over the next week or two will result in a strong rally and end the current sell-off. For Wednesday, expect a higher close.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
10:00 Leading economic indicators were lower than estimated at -0.7% from -0.3% prior
Tuesday:
No economic reports
Wednesday:
9:45 S&P flash services PMI is expected to slip to 52.8 from 54.4
9:45 S&P US manufacturing PMI is estimated to slip to 49.5 from 50.2
10:00 New homes sales for March are expected to rise to 685,000 from 676,000 prior
2:00 Fed’s Beige Book notes are not expected to impact stock market direction today