Prior Trading Day Summary:
On Tue Apr 1 2025 stocks sold lower before finding some buyers. By the close the SPX and NASDAQ were back positive.
The SPX closed up 21 points to 5633 on 4.5 billion shares traded.
The NASDAQ closed up 150 points ending the day at 17,450 on 8 billion shares trade. New lows were still very high at 444.
Let’s review the SPX technical indicators at the close on Tue Apr 1 2025 to see if stocks can close positive for a third day on Wed Apr 2 2025.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Tue Apr 1 2025
The index closed below the 200 day moving average but above the low from March 13. This is still bearish.
The closing candlestick suggests some selling and dips on Wednesday.
The 21 day moving average is falling and closed at 5673 which is bearish. The 21 day moving average fell below the 50 day on Friday Mar 7/ It fell below the 100 day on Thursday Mar 13 for a second down signal and on Friday Mar 28 it fell below the 200 day for a third down signal.
The 50 day moving average is falling and closed at 5886 which is bearish.
The 100 day moving average is falling and closed at 5832 which is bearish.
The 200 day moving average is unchanged and closed at 5700 which is bearish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is turning higher which could be signaling a Bollinger Bands Squeeze may be coming within a couple of days. The Upper Bollinger Band is falling below the 50 day moving average and heading to the 100 day. Presently this is bearish but a Bollinger Bands Squeeze could see stocks try to pop.
For Wednesday the SPX chart is still strongly bearish and the closing candlestick warns that stocks call fall again on Wednesday.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Tue Apr 1 2025
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is rising and negative.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Friday Mar 21 2025. The up signal was almost gone on Tue Apr 1 2025.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising and positive.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a down signal in place.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising.
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| Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising signaling a higher close is expected. Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline. |
Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 6000 is resistance |
| 5970 is resistance |
| 5950 is resistance |
| 5900 is resistance |
| 5890 is resistance |
| 5875 is resistance |
| 5850 is resistance |
| 5800 is resistance |
| 5775 is resistance |
| 5750 is resistance |
| 5730 is resistance |
| 5700 is support |
| 5650 is support |
| 5630 is support |
| 5600 is support |
| 5585 is support |
| 5550 is support |
| 5500 is support |
| 5450 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Wed Apr 2 2025
Wednesday will be all about the tariffs but even when more information is known, the entire structure of what tariffs could mean for the economy won’t be known for months. That means stocks will be under pressure for weeks.
For Wednesday the closing candlestick on Tuesday signaled a larger dip than expected on Wednesday but still a chance for a bit of a bounce probably in the mid-morning.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
9:45 Chicago business barometer came in higher than expected at 47.6 which was higher than the prior reading of 45.5
Tuesday:
9:45 Final S&P US manufacturing PMI was much higher than expected at 50.2
10:00 Construction spending rose well beyond estimated to 0.7%
10:00 ISM Manufacturing slipped to 49%
10:00 Job openings came in at 7.6 million, down from 7.7 million.
Through The Day we get auto sales which are estimated to be 16.5 million, up slightly from 26.0 million prior
Wednesday:
8:15 ADP employment is estimated to rise to 120,000 from 70,000 prior
10:00 Factory orders are expected to fall to 0.6% from 1.7% prior