On Tuesday stocks continued with their sideways motion, dipping to 4140 early in the day and then moving sideways before a late day rally, again, closin the index almost flat, up 3 points at 4154.
The NASDAQ closed down 4 points at 12153.
Let’s review the closing technical indicators from Tue Apr 18 2023 to see what we should expect for Wed Apr 19 2023.
Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Tue Apr 18 2023
The index closed with a bullish candlestick for Wednesday. The candlestick also signaled weakness should be expected with the potential for dips and even perhaps a lower close.
The Upper Bollinger Band is turning up and the Lower Bollinger Band is also turning higher. Both are bullish signals.
The 200 day moving average is climbing which is bullish. As explained, a new up signal on Friday occurred with the 21 day above the 50 day. This comes close to normalizing the market back to a bull stance and wiped out the down signal from March 14, leaving just one down signal.
The 50 day continues above the 200 day which is bullish. The 100 day is rising and should move above the 200 day perhaps by mid-week or certainly by end of the week. That will end the final down signal made April 24 2022, a year ago.
There are 6 up signal since January and just 1 down signal left. The SPX has been above the 200 day moving average for 14 trading days another bullish indicator.
Stock Market Outlook review of Tue Apr 18 2023
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:
Momentum: Momentum is dipping and positive.
- Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.
MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) up signal from Mar 21 lost strength again. The histogram also shows a drop in strength.
- Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9.
Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling and positive.
- Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.
Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a neutral signal in place. It is also signaling overbought.
- Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.
Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising and positive. It is also signaling overbought.
- Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor. It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.
Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising and positive.
- Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.
Support and Resistance Levels To Be Aware Of:
4250 is resistance
4240 is resistance
4225 is resistance
4210 is resistance
4200 is resistance
4190 is resistance
4180 is resistance
4175 is resistance
4150 is resistance
4135 is resistance
4125 is resistance
4100 is resistance
4090 is resistance
4075 is support
4050 is support
4030 is light support
4025 is light support
4000 is support
Stock Market Outlook for Wed Apr 19 2023
For Wednesday the technical indicators are showing some weakness, but overall they still remain bullish.
The closing candlestick is showing a weak stance with the potential for a lower close on Wednesday. Investors get the Fed’s Beige Book today which could impact the market. As well a number of earnings on Tuesday after hours, especially in Netflix Stock (NFLX) which disappointed with earnings, may weigh on stocks. No matter what the outcome on Tuesday, lower or higher, the bulls are still in charge and will be higher shortly.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Wednesday investors are treated the the Fed Beige Book at 2:00 PM.
Monday:
2:00 Fed Beige Book