Prior Trading Day Summary:
On Tue Apr 15 2025 investors were surprised at the sideways move and the much calmer markets. The S&P closed down slightly, losing 9 points to close at 5396. The NASDAQ closed down just 8 points at 16,823.
Volumes moved back closer to “normal” with the S&P trading 4.4 billion shares and the NASDAQ 7.9 billion.
The day ended though with a mixed outlook as you can see below in the technical signals.
Let’s review the technical indicators from the close on Tue Apr 15 2025 to see what they predict for Wed Apr 16 2025.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Tue Apr 15 2025
The index closed below the 200 day moving average again and below Wednesday’s (Feb 9) high which is bearish.
The closing candlestick is as a long shadow which for Wednesday signals a lower open or lower morning. At the same time, the candlestick also points to a probable bounce later in the day but it may not be much of a bounce.
The 21 day moving average is falling and closed at 5498. The 21 day moving average fell below the 50 day on Friday Mar 7. It fell below the 100 day on Thursday Mar 13 for a second down signal and on Friday Mar 28 it fell below the 200 day for a third down signal.
The 50 day moving average is falling and closed at 5736 which is bearish. The 50 day moving average fell below the 100 day on Tuesday which issues a 4th down signal on the SPX.
The 100 day moving average is falling and closed at 5737 which is bearish.
The 200 day moving average is falling and closed at 5662 which is bearish.
All the moving averages are continuing their decline and a new fourth down signal was generated on Tuesday.
The Lower Bollinger Band is falling. The Upper Bollinger Band is also falling which is bearish.
For Wednesday the SPX chart is very bearish although still signaling a possible bounce later in the day on Wednesday.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Tue Apr 15 2025
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is falling and negative.
|
MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Thu Apr 3 2025. On Tue Apr 15 2025 a new but unconfirmed up signal was issued.
|
Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising and positive. It is not oversold.
|
Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place that could turn to a down signal today.
|
Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling and not oversold.
|
| Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling and signaling a lower close for Wednesday. Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline. |
Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 5800 is resistance |
| 5775 is resistance |
| 5750 is resistance |
| 5730 is resistance |
| 5700 is resistance |
| 5650 is resistance |
| 5630 is resistance |
| 5600 is resistance |
| 5550 is resistance |
| 5500 is resistance |
| 5450 is support |
| 5400 is support |
| 5230 is support |
| 5000 is support |
| 4770 is support |
| 4680 is support |
| 4500 is support |
| 4365 is support |
| 4150 is support |
| 4000 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Wed Apr 16 2025
For Wednesday investors have a mixed outlook. The Moving Average Convergence / Divergence indicator has a new unconfirmed up signal as of the close on Tuesday but the 50 day moving average fell below the 100 day for a 4th down signal on the SPX.
The closing candlestick also indicates a probable lower open but a bounce later in the day. Mix into the outlook news that NVIDIA stock is lower by roughly 6% on news they are taking a $5.5 billion dollar hit in the next quarter and the chance of a higher close is less.
With the mixed outlook we may see volatility pick up. Investors should stay a bit cautious on Wednesday until we get a clearer view of where the SPX will move next.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
No reports
Tuesday:
8:30 Import price index fell to 0.1% from 0.4% prior
8:30 Empire State manufacturing survey rose to -8.1 from -20.0 prior
Wednesday:
8:30 US Retail sales are estimated to rise 1.2% from 0.2% prior
8:30 Retail sales minus autos is expected to be flat at 0.3%
9:15 Industrial production is expected to fall to -0.1% from 0.7% prior
9:15 Capacity utilization is expected to fall to 77.9% from 78.2%
10:00 Business inventories are expected to be unchanged at 0.3%
10:00 Home builder confidence index is estimated to fall to 37 from 39