Stock Market Outlook for Tue Sep 5 2023 – Mixed Outlook But Still Higher

Prior Trading Day Summary

On Fri Sep 1 the August non-farm payroll report surprised with a higher 187,000 jobs created which was better than estimates and July’s 157,000 jobs created. The unemployment rate climbed however to 3.8% and that was enough to put a floor under selling on Friday. The immediate consensus was that the Fed would now hold off an interest rate hike in September and wait for further economic data. This bolstered some buying on Friday although volumes were very low with just 3.3 billion shares traded on New York which is well below average. The S&P closed up 8 points at 4515 as it continues to hold the 4500 valuation.

What was interesting was the S&P saw 116 new 52 week highs, the highest number since August 1.

The NASDAQ saw lower volume at 4.1 billion shares traded  but that was still above Monday’s (Aug 28) 3.7 billion shares traded, the lowest volume day since July 3 which was a half day. The NASDAQ dipped 3 points to end the day at 14,031.

Tech names slipped slightly with NVIDIA Stock (NVDA) down $8 at $485 but intraday the stock was at $498 at the open, just $4.00 from its 52 week high of $502.66. Apple stock continues its advance despite bearish analysts. The stock closed up $1.59 at $189.46 as it recovers from the latest dip. I sold my shares on Friday for $189.50 which members know were purchased Aug 21 for $174. The stock looks ready to tackle $190 but the easiest part of the rally, I think, is over for now.

Texas Instruments Stock (TXN) had been downgraded by a number of analysts recently but it closed up $1.77 on Friday at $169.83.

Meanwhile Microsoft Stock (MSFT) also closed higher by 90 cents to $328.66 and it closed at the 21 day moving average.

Let’s review the SPX index from Friday Sep 1 to see what to expect for Tue Sep 5 2023 as we start the first week of September. Analysts are leaning to the bearish side for September’s final outcome.

Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Fri Sep 1 2023

The index closed above the all major moving averages for a fourth day which remains bullish. The 21 day continued to move lower however, below the 50 day for a down signal. I had thought we might see a bit of change there but none yet. We could see some weakness develop as a result.

The closing candlestick on Friday is bullish.

The 100 and 200 day moving averages are continuing to climb which is bullish and the 50 day is back climbing which is also bullish.

The Lower Bollinger Band is clinging to the 100 day which is bearish. The Upper Bollinger Band is trying to climb. On Friday the index briefly touched the Upper Bollinger Band before closing below it. This indicates a mixed outlook for Tuesday.

Stock Market Outlook review of Fri Sep 1 2023

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review

Stock Market Outlook for Tue Sep 5 2023 

The opening on Tuesday following the long weekend should be higher followed by some selling to see the SPX dip lower before rallying in the afternoon to close higher.

The outlook remains bullish, but a number of the technical indicators are showing signs of neutral and overbought, advising investors that the rally will slow to start the week.

Monday though should still see a positive close, even if only a slightly higher.

Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events

This week has less economic reports but on Wednesday, investors get the Fed’s Beige Book which often can produce a temporary swing in the market.

Tuesday:

10:00 Factory orders are expected to have dipped to -2.3% which would support investors who expect no rate hike in September.

End Of Summer 30% Discount Special

The End Of Summer Special continued throughout the long Labor Day Weekend. There are still discounted memberships available at the time of writing this article. For further details, select this link.