Prior Trading Day Summary:
On Friday the PCE Index (Personal Consumption Expenditures) came in as expected, rising 0.2%. Investors jumped into stocks with the expectation that inflation is moving toward the Fed’s 2% target and interest rates will be cut starting September.
By the close the SPX was up 56 points to close at 5648, just 18 points from the 52 week high. This was the biggest one day move higher since August 15.
The NASDAQ rose 197 points to close at 17,713.
Aside from the point gains, volume picked up despite the upcoming long weekend. The SPX traded 4.3 billion shares the best day since Aug 7. The NASDAQ traded 5.6 billion shares.
Let’s review the closing technical indicators from Fri Aug 30 2024 to see what the signals advise for Tue Sep 3 2024
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Thu Aug 29 2024
The index closed above all the major moving averages which is bullish.
The closing candlestick is bullish with a long shadow which signals dips on Tuesday are likely.
The 21 day moving average is turning higher but failed to cross above the 50 day. This is bearish.
The 50 day moving average is rising and closed at 5503. This is bullish.
The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 5370 which is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is in an uptrend and closed at 5144 which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is below the 100 day moving average and is moving lower which is bullish.
The Upper Bollinger Band is moving higher which is also bullish.
The S&P chart is strongly bullish with just the 21 day moving average the only bearish signals.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Fri Aug 30 2024
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is rising and positive.
|
MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Wed Aug 14 2024. On Fri Aug 30 2024 the up signal gained strength which is noticeable in the MACD histogram.
|
Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising and positive.
|
Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a neutral signal in place. It is overbought.
|
Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising and positive.
|
Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising signaling Tuesday will end higher.
|
Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 5660 is resistance |
| 5650 is resistance |
| 5625 is resistance |
| 5615 is resistance |
| 5600 is resistance |
| 5575 is resistance |
| 5550 is resistance |
| 5540 is resistance |
| 5525 is resistance |
| 5500 is resistance |
| 5470 is support |
| 5450 is support |
| 5425 is support |
| 5400 is support |
| 5375 is support |
| 5350 is support |
| 5325 is support |
| 5300 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Tue Sep 3 2024
Historically the first trading day after the Labor Day Weekend has been positive 56% of the time over the past 25 years. Considering that the technical indicators are predominantly investors are bullish on an upcoming rate cut. Tuesday will see some dips as indicated by Friday’s closing candlestick but the close will be higher. The economic reports on Tuesday should assist the market to close higher unless there are any surprises, which is not expected.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
Holiday
Tuesday:
9:45 S&P final manufacturing PMI is expected to come in at 48
10:00 Construction spending is estimated to rise to -0.1% from -0.3% prior.
10:00 ISM manufacturing is expected to rise to 47.9% from 46.8%