Stock Market Outlook for Tue Sep 29 2020 – Dips Likely But Higher Close

Stock Market Outlook Choppy Dips Higher

On Monday investors sent indexes still higher and ended the day with the SPX back to the 50 day moving average at the 3351 valuation.


Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Mon Sep 28 2020 

On Monday the index moved higher and closed t the 50 day moving average. The closing candlestick was bullish for Tuesday.

The Upper Bollinger Band is still falling following the Lower Bollinger Band’s move lower. This is bearish.

The 21 day is continuing to fall and could end up below the 50 day shortly unless the market can rally for several days.

The 50 period moving average is turning lower and needs to be watched this week for any further sell signal.

The index has now been trading below the 21 day moving average for 15 straight (trading) days without being able to climb back above it. This remains a strong bearish signal.

The 100 and 200 day moving averages are still climbing. There are still 6 up signals and three down signals. The SPX chart is bearish but pointing to signs of a possible continuation of Monday’s rally.

Stock Market Outlook review of Mon Sep 28 2020

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:

Momentum: Momentum is rising but still negative.

  • Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.

MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Sep 4. On Monday the down signal was weaker.

  • Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. 

Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising.

  • Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.

Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place and is oversold.

Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.

Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising.

  • Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor.  It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.

Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is finally starting to rise.

  • Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.





Support and Resistance Levels To Be Aware Of:

3600 is resistance

3500 is resistance

3450 is resistance

3400 is resistance

3375 is resistance

3300 was support

3275 is support

3200 is support

3150 is support

3050 is support

3000 is support

2975 is light support

2950 is light support

2900 is light support


 Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Tue Sep 29 2020 

For Tuesday the technical indicators are all rising and there are no new sell signals. Even MACD has a much weaker down signal in place.

The Slow Stochastic has a very strong up signal in place as it moves away from being oversold.

The Rate Of Change that has been flat lately finally turned up today which usually signals higher prices are ahead.

The market after 3 days of rallying, two of which were very strong, is now at the 50 day moving average. We should see some dips today but by the close the index should be above the 50 day moving average.


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