Prior Trading Day Summary
On Monday, stocks rose fueled primarily by an extremely oversold condition. Oil prices continued to climb as did treasury yields which ended the day at their highest level since 2007.
Despite all this, investors picked through stocks and managed to close the indexes higher.
The SPX rose a modest 17 points to close at 4337 while the NASDAQ rose 59 points to close at 13,710.
Volumes were poor on Monday but the SPX had 249 new lows, the highest number since May 4.
The NASDAQ had 433 new 52 week lows the second highest number in September and third highest since May 4.
Let’s review the closing technical indicators from Mon Sep 25 2023 to see what to expect for Tue Sep 26 2023.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Mon Sep 25 2023
The index closed below the 50, 21 and 100 period moving averages for a third day which is bearish. The closing candlestick is also bearish but once again signals a potential bounce for Tuesday. The closing candlestick closed at the Lower Bollinger Band which is bearish but is also often a point where a bounce occurs in a downtrend.
The 50 period and 21 period moving averages are falling which is bearish. The 200 period moving averages are continuing to climb which is bullish. The 100 period moving average is starting to turn sideways which is neutral at present.
The Lower Bollinger Band is turning sideways which is bearish. The Upper Bollinger Band is rising which is bullish. Overall the SPX chart is still signaling that this is a correction and nothing more. We will soon see if that prediction is true.
Stock Market Outlook review of Mon Sep 25 2023
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is falling sharply and negative. It is signaling extremely oversold.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Mon Sep 18. On Monday the down signal was stronger again.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising and negative. It is oversold.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has n up signal in place and is extremely oversold.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising and negative. It is oversold.
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Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising and negative.
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Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 4600 is resistance |
| 4575 is resistance |
| 4550 is resistance |
| 4525 is resistance |
| 4500 is resistance |
| 4485 is resistance |
| 4470 is resistance |
| 4450 is resistance |
| 4435 is support |
| 4420 is support |
| 4400 is support |
| 4390 is support |
| 4370 is support |
| 4350 is support |
| 4330 is support |
| 4325 is support |
| 4300 is good support |
Stock Market Outlook for Tue Sep 26 2023
For Tuesday, the technical indicators are still negative but a number of them are rising. They are however still signaling oversold. For the bulls that could mean a further bounce attempt today.
The day could open flat to slightly positive but then move lower to test 4325 before attempting another rally. The close is expected to be a bit higher.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
This week the reports are lighter which could assist the bulls. The most telling report is the PCE Index on Friday.
Tuesday:
9:00 S&P Case-Shiller home price index is expected to be positive 0.3%, up from -1.2% prior
10:00 New home sales are expected to dip to 695,000 from 714,000
10:00 Consumer confidence is estimated at 105.5 down just slightly from 106.1 prior
