Prior Trading Day Summary
On Mon Sep 22 2025 stocks continued the latest rally and pushed all 3 indexes to new closing highs.
The SPX rose 29 points on 5.8 billion shares to close at 6693, just 7 points from closing at 6700. 54% of all volume was moving higher while 49% of stocks were rising.
The NASDAQ rose 157 points for a new closing high of 22,789 on 10 billion shares traded. 54% of volume was advancing by the close along with 56% of all stocks on the index. The rally on the NASDAQ was stronger than on the SPX on Monday.
Lets review the closing technical indicators from Mon Sep 22 2025 to see if stocks will rise again on Tue Sep 23 2025.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Mon Sep 22 2025
The index closed above the 21 day moving average and at the Upper Bollinger which is bullish.
The closing candlestick is bullish with no shadows. The index closed at the high on Monday which often means weakness on the following day.
The 21 day moving average is rising and closed at 6532 which is bullish.
The 50 day moving average is rising and closed at 6430 which is bullish.
The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 6251 which is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is rising and closed at 6036 which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is turning higher which is bullish. The Upper Bollinger Band is rising which is bullish. At present the outlook is still for stocks to move higher.
The SPX chart is more bullish than bearish for Tuesday. All moving averages are above 6000 which is bullish for further advances.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Mon Sep 22 2025
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is rising and positive.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Wed Sep 10 2025. On Mon Sep 22 2025 the up signal gained strength.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place and is signaling overbought.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising and overbought.
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| Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising, signaling a higher close is expected for Tue Sep 23 2025. Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline. |
Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 6700 is resistance |
| 6675 is resistance |
| 6650 is resistance |
| 6625 is resistance |
| 6600 is resistance |
| 6590 is resistance |
| 6570 is resistance |
| 6535 is resistance |
| 6510 is resistance |
| 6500 is resistance |
| 6470 is resistance |
| 6450 is resistance |
| 6425 is resistance |
| 6400 is resistance |
| 6390 is resistance |
| 6350 is support |
| 6325 is support |
| 6300 is support |
| 6250 is support |
| 6225 is support |
| 6200 is support |
| 6175 is support |
| 6150 is support |
| 6125 is support |
| 6100 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Tue Sep 23 2025
For Tue Sep 23 2025 the index starts off with 3 technical indicators signaling the market is very overbought. As well, the closing candlestick on Monday also signaled that the index is extremely overbought. A rest could happen at any time. The closing candlestick signaled investors should watch for weakness in the morning today. Being overbought does not signal an end to the rally. However being overbought day after day, usually ends with stocks tumbling before buyers step back in.
At present every little dip is being snapped up such as we saw on Monday at the start of the day. With investors jumping in quickly on dips, they are pushing stocks further into overbought territory. At some point, dips will become deeper as investors will pullback from too many dips, should they occur.
On Tuesday I am expecting another dip in the morning but a choppier day that ends with a higher close. Watch for the SPX to close at or above 6700 on Tuesday.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
There are no economic reports
Tuesday:
9:45 S&P flash services PMI is estimated at 53.8, down from 54.5 prior
9:45 S&P flash manufacturing PMI is estimated to have fallen to 51.5 from 53.0 prior
12:35 Fed Chair Powell speaks