Prior Trading Day Summary
On Friday (Aug 29) investors were caught off guard by a higher than anticipated PCE. Investors had expected the PCE numbers to fall. The immediate reaction was to sell stocks as a higher PCE may reduce the likelihood of a September rate cut.
The S&P closed down 41 points to 6460. For the final week of August the index was down 6 points. For the month, the S&P was higher.
The NASDAQ closed down 249 points to 21,455. For the week, the index was down just 41 points.
Lets review the closing technical indicators from Fri Aug 29 2025 to see what they advise to expect for the first trading day of September.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Fri Aug 29 2025
The index closed above the 21 day moving average and below the Upper Bollinger Band. This is bearish.
The closing candlestick is bearish for Tuesday but with shadows which indicates dips are likely.
The 21 day moving average is rising and closed at 6408 which is bullish.
The 50 day moving average is rising and closed at 6316 which is bullish.
The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 6141 which is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is rising and closed at 5952 which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is falling further below the 50 day moving average. This is negative for stocks at present.
The Upper Bollinger Band is rising which is bullish.
The SPX chart is more bullish than bearish for Tuesday.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Fri Aug 29 2025
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is falling but positive.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Tue Aug 19 2025. OnFri Aug 29 2025 the down signal gained some strength.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a down signal in place.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling.
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| Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling, signaling a lower close for Tue Sep 2 2025. Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline. |
Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 6500 is resistance |
| 6470 is resistance |
| 6450 is resistance |
| 6425 is resistance |
| 6400 is resistance |
| 6390 is resistance |
| 6365 is resistance |
| 6350 is resistance |
| 6325 is resistance |
| 6300 is resistance |
| 6250 is resistance |
| 6225 is resistance |
| 6200 is support |
| 6175 is support |
| 6150 is support |
| 6125 is support |
| 6100 is support |
| 6075 is support |
| 6050 is support |
| 6025 is support |
| 6000 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Tue Sep 2 2025
For Tuesday, the technical indicators are all falling or pointing lower. Often this signals a bounce should be expected, however after Friday’s move lower, a second lower close is likely before investors return to push stocks higher again.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Tuesday:
9:45 S&P final manufacturing PMI is estimated to remain unchanged at 53.3
10:00 ISM manufacturing is estimated to rise to 48.5% from 48% prior
10:00 Construction spending is estimated to be flat at 0.0%