Prior Trading Day Summary
On Monday stocks tested the 4450 level intraday and managed to hold it and close above it. This continue to keep the rally alive.
The S&P closed up 3 points at 4453 while the NASDAQ closed up 1.90 to end the day at 13,710.
Let’s review the SPX technical indicators from Mon Sep 18 2023 to see what to expect for Tue Sep 19 2023.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Mon Sep 18 2023
The index closed back below the 50 and 21 day moving average which is bearish. The closing candlestick looks steady and could issue a bounce signal. However there is a long shadow (head) in the candlestick and often this shadow signals another day of the index moving lower.
The 50, 100 and 200 day moving averages are continuing to climb which is bullish. The 21 day moving average is turning higher which, while still bearish, is a good sign the rally might return.
The Lower Bollinger Band is back rising which is bearish. It looks set to move above the 50 period moving average. The Upper Bollinger Band is moving sideways which is bearish. The Bollinger Bands Squeeze on Monday continues to suggest stocks will move lower out of this squeeze.
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
|Momentum: Momentum is falling and negative.|
|MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Tue Aug 29 2023. On Mon Sep 18 2023 the MACD indicator issued a weak down signal.|
|Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling and negative.|
|Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a down signal in place.|
|Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling and negative.|
|Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising and positive.|
Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels
|4600 is resistance|
|4575 is resistance|
|4550 is resistance|
|4525 is resistance|
|4500 is resistance|
|4485 is resistance|
|4470 is resistance|
|4450 is support|
|4435 is support|
|4420 is support|
|4400 is support|
|4390 is support|
|4370 is support|
|4350 is support|
Stock Market Outlook for Tue Sep 19 2023
For Tuesday the technical indicators are suggesting there is a chance for the index to try to move higher. There are though, just as many reasons why the index will move lower to get out of the Bollinger Bands Squeeze.
For Tuesday expect some flatness due to the Fed meeting tomorrow and then a rally tomorrow as the Fed prepares to release the latest decision on interest rates. Very few investors and analysts believe there will be an interest rate hike.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
This week the Fed’s interest rate decision and news conference on Wednesday is the main event to be watching.
8:30 Housing starts are expected to be lower at 1,43 billion
8:30 Building permits are released which are expected to be 1.45 million, up slightly from 1.44 million.