FullyInformed.com

Stock Market Outlook for Tue Sep 19 2023 – Bearish Bounce Possible

Sep 19, 2023 | Stock Market Outlook

Prior Trading Day Summary

On Monday stocks tested the 4450 level intraday and managed to hold it and close above it. This continue to keep the rally alive.

The S&P closed up 3  points at 4453 while the NASDAQ closed up 1.90 to end the day at 13,710.

Let’s review the SPX technical indicators from Mon Sep 18 2023 to see what to expect for Tue Sep 19 2023.


Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Mon Sep 18 2023

The index closed back below the 50 and 21 day moving average which is bearish. The closing candlestick looks steady and could issue a bounce signal. However there is a long shadow (head) in the candlestick and often this shadow signals another day of the index moving lower.

The 50, 100 and 200 day moving averages are continuing to climb which is bullish. The 21 day moving average is turning higher which, while still bearish, is a good sign the rally might return.

The Lower Bollinger Band is back rising which is bearish. It looks set to move above the 50 period moving average. The Upper Bollinger Band is moving sideways which is bearish. The Bollinger Bands Squeeze on Monday continues to suggest stocks will move lower out of this squeeze.

Stock Market Outlook review of Mon Sep 18 2023


Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review

Momentum: Momentum is falling and negative.

  • Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.
MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Tue Aug 29 2023. On Mon Sep 18 2023 the MACD indicator issued a weak down signal.

  • Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. 
Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling and negative.

  • Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.
Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a down signal in place.

  • Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.
Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling and negative.

  • Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor.  It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.
Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising and positive.

  • Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.

Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels

4600 is resistance
4575 is resistance
4550 is resistance
4525 is resistance
4500 is resistance
4485 is resistance
4470 is resistance
4450 is support
4435 is support
4420 is support
4400 is support
4390 is support
4370 is support
4350 is support


Stock Market Outlook for Tue Sep 19 2023 

For Tuesday the technical indicators are suggesting there is a chance for the index to try to move higher. There are though, just as many reasons why the index will move lower to get out of the Bollinger Bands Squeeze.

For Tuesday expect some flatness due to the Fed meeting tomorrow and then a rally tomorrow as the Fed prepares to release the latest decision on interest rates. Very few investors and analysts believe there will be an interest rate hike.


Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events

This week the Fed’s interest rate decision and news conference on Wednesday is the main event to be watching.

Tuesday:

8:30 Housing starts are expected to be lower at 1,43 billion

8:30 Building permits are released which are expected to be 1.45 million, up slightly from 1.44 million.






Search

Select to view all results...

Generic selectors
Exact matches only
Search in title
Search in content
Post Type Selectors

Recent Outlooks

Stock Market Outlook for Mon Jul 22 2024 – Bounce Expected But MACD Down Signal Confirmed

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Friday stocks failed to bounce and selling persisted, albeit at a slower pace. By the end of the day the SPX was down 39 points to 5505. For the week, the SPX lost 110 points …

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Jul 19 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Jul 19 2024 review the outlook following two days of selling. There are also trades planned in Verizon Communications Stock (VZ), Taiwan Semiconductor Stock (TSM), Apple Stock (AAPL) and others …

Stock Market Outlook for Fri Jul 19 2024 – Unconfirmed MACD Down Signal

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Thursday stocks tried to bounce at the open, failed and continued to sell lower. The S&P lost 43 points to close at 5544 while the NASDAQ fell 125 points to close at 17,871. For the …

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Jul 18 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Jul 18 2024 review the outlook for today. There are also trades planned in Netflix Stock (NFLX), American Express Company Stock (AXP) and others. The morning Investing Strategy Notes are …

Stock Market Outlook for Thu Jul 18 2024 – Potential Bounce But Lower

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Wednesday tech stocks were hit with strong selling as investors decided it was time to take profits ahead of uncertainty over the upcoming election and the possibility of more tariffs and restrictions on chips with …

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Jul 17 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Jul 17 2024 review the outlook for today. There are also trades planned in IWM ETF,  Johnson and Johnson Stock (JNJ), Taiwan Semiconductor Stock (TSM) and others. The morning Investing …

Stock Market Outlook for Wed Jul 17 2024 – New Highs But Still Higher

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Tuesday the S&P and Dow Jones made new all-time highs once again. The S&P closed up 36 points to end the day at 5667. Volume rose on the index reaching 4.1 billion. 84% of all …

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Jul 16 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Jul 16 2024 reviews the outlook for today. There are also trades planned in IWM ETF,  Interactive Brokers Stock (IBKR), Johnson and Johnson Stock (JNJ) and others. The morning Investing …

Stock Market Outlook for Tue Jul 16 2024 – Dips Likely But Still Bullish

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Monday stocks continued their advance although as the day wore on the rally faded. The S&P closed up 15 points to 5631 while the NASDAQ rose 74 points to close at 18472. The Dow Jones …

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon Jul 15 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon Jul 15 2024 look at the start of the third week of July. There are also trade planned in IWM ETF,  Goldman Sachs Stock (GS), Morgan Stanley Stock (MS), UnitedHealth …

Stock Market Outlook for Mon Jul 15 2024 – Choppy – Dips Possible But Still Up

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Friday investors got the latest Producer Price Index numbers which were slightly higher than estimated but the core PPI year-over-year was slightly lower and that was enough to send stocks higher. By the close the …

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Jul 12 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Jul 12 2024 are expanded to cover a number of topics following Thursday’s lower close. There are also a large number of trades discussed including in Wells Fargo Stock (WFC), …

Stock Market Outlook for Fri Jul 12 2024 – Potential Bounce But Lower Close

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Thursday investors shifted out of many large tech names who have been leading the index higher and shifted into other sectors not related to AI and tech. But while the close looked bearish, the number …

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Jul 11 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Jul 11 2024 discuss the outlook for Thursday along with trade ideas in IWM ETF,  VIX Index, SPY ETF, Wells Fargo Stock (WFC), Citigroup Stock (C) and JP Morgan Chase …

Subscribe For The Latest News