Stock Market Outlook for Tue Sep 18 2018 – Choppy With Bias Lower

I had expected some weakness on Monday but a slightly higher close for the S&P. Instead weakness dominated as investors worried over the potential for more tariffs with China in an escalation of the trade dispute. That left the S&P lower by half a percent.

Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Mon Sep 17 2018 

The S&P fell all the way to the 21 day moving average on Monday and bounced off of it, but only slightly. This left behind a bearish candlestick for Tuesday.

As well the Lower Bollinger Band has reached the 50 day moving average and the Upper Bollinger Band is continuing to decline. A Bollinger Bands Squeeze is the most likely outcome. At this time it is bearish.

All the other major moving averages are still climbing which is bullish.

Stock Market Outlook review of Mon Sep 17 2018

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:

Momentum: Momentum is negative and falling for Tuesday.

• Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.

MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Thu Sep 6 2018. The down signal was stronger on Monday.

• Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. 

Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator signal is positive and falling.

• Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.

Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a weak up signal in place for a fourth day.

• Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.

Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal fell dramatically on Monday.

• Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor.  It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.

Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling.

• Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.

Support Levels To Be Aware Of:

2830 is light support

2795 is light support

2745 to 2750 is light support

2725 is light support.

2700 is support.

2675 is light support.

2650 is light support

2620 is light support

2600 is strong support.

There is good support at the 2550 level from where the market bounced back from the recent correction low on Feb 9.

The S&P has light support at 2480. It also has light support at 2450 and good support at 2425. Below that there is some support at 2400, 2380, 2350. 2300 has the most support at present but would represent a full correction as a drop to this level would be 20% and just 5% away from a potential bear market signal.

 Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Tue Sep 18 2018 

There are no technical indicators that are rising. All the signal are falling. Only the Slow Stochastic has a very weak up signal in place for Tuesday and even a small amount of selling on Tuesday will turn that signal negative.

The outlook for Tuesday is choppy and lower.

Remember though that most of this weakness is tariff driven and it will not take much to bounce the market back up.

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