Prior Trading Day Summary:
Monday was a choppy day for stocks, as expected but the close saw the SPX end positive. The NASDAQ however ended negative. Overall though the technical indicators continue to show strength for the bulls.
The SPX rose 7 points on 3.5 billion shares traded ending at 5633.
The NASDAQ slipped 92 points on 4.8 billion shares to close at 17,592.
What was interesting was the volumes which were identical to Friday’s volumes. This is bullish for Tuesday.
Meanwhile the Dow Jones ended at another new record high. .
Let’s review the closing technical indicators from Mon Sep 16 2024 to see what to expect on Tuesday, one day before the Fed’s decision on interest rates is known.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Mon Sep 16 2024
The index closed above the 21 day moving average which is bullish.
The closing candlestick has a small shadow which signals a bit of a choppy day for Tuesday should be expected.
The 21 day moving average is higher at 5571. This is bullish.
The 50 day moving average is higher at 5512. This is bullish.
The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 5400 which is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is in an uptrend and closed at 5180 which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is above the 100 day moving average and climbing which is bullish.
The Upper Bollinger Band is starting to rise. This is bullish.
The chance of a Bollinger Bands Squeeze this week is high. It’s anyone’s guess which way stocks will head out of the squeeze but at present the daily candlesticks are following the Lower Bollinger Band higher. Often that signals a higher move coming or at the very least, a move higher into the Fed’s interest rate announcement.
The S&P chart is bullish for Tuesday.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Mon Sep 16 2024
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is falling and negative.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Fri Sep 13 2024. The up signal was strongly confirmed on Monday.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising and positive. It is nearing overbought levels.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place. It is at overbought levels.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising and positive. It is nearing overbought levels.
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Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling signaling Tuesday will end lower.
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Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 5650 is resistance |
| 5625 is resistance |
| 5615 is resistance |
| 5600 is resistance |
| 5575 is resistance |
| 5550 is resistance |
| 5540 is resistance |
| 5525 is support |
| 5500 is support |
| 5470 is support |
| 5450 is support |
| 5425 is support |
| 5400 is support |
| 5375 is support |
| 5350 is support |
| 5325 is support |
| 5300 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Tue Sep 17 2024
For Tuesday the Moving Average Convergence / Divergence (MACD) technical indicator strongly confirmed Friday’s up signal. At 8:30 investors get the latest retail sales data. If the data is higher than expected the day could start lower. If the data comes in as estimated, the index could open flat to slightly higher. Even if the open is negative, the technical indicators are overwhelming showing the close wwill be positive.
The technical indicators are primarily pointing to a higher close ahead of the Fed’s decision on interest rates due out Wednesday at 2:00 PM.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
8:30 Empire State manufacturing survey came in much higher than expected at 11.5 versus -4.7 prior.
Tuesday:
8:30 Retail sales are expected to dip to -0.2%
8:30 Retail sales minute autos is expected to slip to 0.2% from 0.4% prior
9:15 Industrial production is expected to rise to 0.2% from -0.6%
9:15 Capacity utilization is estimated to rise slightly to 77.9% from 77.8%
10:00 Business inventories are estimated unchanged at 0.3%
10:00 Home builder confidence is estimated at 40 versus 39 prior.