Prior Trading Day Summary
On Mon Sep 15 2025 the day ended with another new all-time high on the S&P and NASDAQ indexes.
The SPX rose 31 points to close at 6615 on 5.1 billion shares traded. 60% of the volume was moving higher by the close along with 55% of all stocks.
The NASDAQ ended higher by 207 points to 22,348. Volume slipped to 9.1 billion shares traded. 72% of all volume was being traded higher with 53% of all stocks rising by the close.
With one day left before the FOMC latest interest rate decision, lets review the closing technical indicators from Mon Sep 15 2025 to see what we should expect for Tue Sep 16 2025.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Mon Sep 15 2025
The index closed above the 21 day moving average and the Upper Bollinger which is bullish.
The closing candlestick is bullish for Tuesday. The closing candlestick is also signaling the index is overbought. Dips could happen at any time.
The 21 day moving average is rising and closed at 6479 which is bullish.
The 50 day moving average is rising and closed at 6391 which is bullish.
The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 6210 which is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is rising and closed at 6005 which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is falling which is bearish. The Upper Bollinger Band is rising which is bullish. A Bollinger Bands Squeeze is ending. At present the outlook is still for stocks to move higher out of this latest squeeze but that’s a best guess. We will know more shortly.
The SPX chart is bullish for Tuesday.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Mon Sep 15 2025 before the open.
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is rising and positive.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Wed Sep 10 2025. On Mon Sep 15 2025 the up signal was stronger.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place and is signaling overbought.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising.
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| Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising, signaling a higher close for Tue Sep 16 2025. Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline. |
Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 6625 is resistance |
| 6600 is resistance |
| 6590 is resistance |
| 6570 is resistance |
| 6535 is resistance |
| 6510 is resistance |
| 6500 is resistance |
| 6470 is resistance |
| 6450 is resistance |
| 6425 is resistance |
| 6400 is resistance |
| 6390 is resistance |
| 6365 is resistance |
| 6350 is resistance |
| 6325 is resistance |
| 6300 is resistance |
| 6250 is support |
| 6225 is support |
| 6200 is support |
| 6175 is support |
| 6150 is support |
| 6125 is support |
| 6100 is support |
| 6075 is support |
| 6050 is support |
| 6025 is support |
| 6000 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Tue Sep 16 2025
The day before the FOMC announcement an interest rates is normally bullish and I expect the SPX and NASDAQ indexes to close higher today. That said, dips are also common before the Fed’s announcement.
The technical signals are pointing to a higher day for Tue Sep 16 2025 but dips are going to be more common place, the higher the indexes move. For Tuesday though, expect stocks to close higher.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
3:00 Empire State manufacturing survey fell sharply to -9.7 which is far deeper than estimated
Tuesday:
8:30 Retail sales are estimated to have fallen to 0.3% from 0.5% prior
8:30 Retail sales for August are estimated at 0.4% versus 0.5% prior
8:30 Import price index is estimated at -0.2% versus 0.4% prior
9:15 Industrial production is estimated to stay flat at -0.1%
9:15 Capacity utilization is estimated at 77.4%, up slightly from 77.3% prior.
10:00 Business inventories are estimated unchanged at 0.2%.
10:00: Home builder confidence index is at 33 up from 32 prior