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Stock Market Outlook for Tue Oct 22 2024 – Dips Likely But Still Bullish Overall

Oct 22, 2024 | Stock Market Outlook

 

Stock Market Outlook Dips Likely

Prior Trading Day Summary:

Monday saw the SPX lose 10 points in a choppy day of trading while the NASDAQ saw volume rise to 6.4 billion shares traded and a positive close of 50 points.

Up volume on the SPX was just 27% but dips, especially deeper ones on Monday found ready buyers. The NASDAQ saw 61% of all volume being traded higher.

Let’s review the technical indicators from Mon Oct 21 2024 to see what they predict for Tue Oct 22 2024.


Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Mon Oct 21 2024

The index closed down just 10 points and slightly below the Upper Bollinger Band but still well above the 21 day moving average. This is bullish.

The closing candlestick is signaling dips could be deep again on Tuesday as the outlook is bearish.

The 21 day moving average is higher at 5771. This is bullish.

The 50 day moving average is higher at 5652. This is bullish.

The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 5543 which is bullish.

The 200 day moving average is in an uptrend and closed at 5307 which is bullish.

The Lower Bollinger Band is above the 50 day moving average but almost ready to fall below it. This will be bearish. The Upper Bollinger Band is moving higher which is bullish. The latest Bollinger Bands Squeeze is ending as the index still looks bullish.

The S&P chart is bullish for Tuesday with just the closing candlestick and possibly the Lower Bollinger Band giving us some bearish signals.

SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Mon Oct 21 2024


Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review

Momentum: Momentum is rising and positive.

  • Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.
MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Thu Oct 10 2024. On Monday the up signal continued to weaken.

  • Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. 
Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling and positive.

  • Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.
Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a weak up signal in place and is no longer overbought.

  • Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.
Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling.

  • Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor.  It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.
Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is unchanged which signals we may not see much movement today.

  • Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.

Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels

5875 is resistance
5850 is resistance
5815 is resistance
5800 is resistance
5790 is resistance
5775 is resistance
5765 is resistance
5750 is resistance
5740 is resistance
5715 is resistance
5700 is support
5680 is support
5650 is support
5625 is support
5600 is support
5575 is support
5550 is light support
5525 is support
5500 is support


Stock Market Outlook for Tue Oct 22 2024 

For Tuesday some of the technical indicators are losing further strength, especially the MACD technical indicator. As the up signals weaken we will see further dips on Tuesday but again, dips are expected to find buyers as investors wait for further earnings reports from many large cap stocks.

There are no economic reports on Tuesday that will impact the market direction.


Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events

Monday:

10:00 Leading economic indicators were lower than estimated at -0.5%

Tuesday:

No economic reports.

 





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