Stock Market Outlook for Tue Oct 22 2019 – Bias Is Higher

Monday was all about hope that positive comments from China’s Vice Premier on progress on the trade front were true and investors cautiously pushed the index higher to close above 3000.

Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Mon Oct 21 2019 

The SPX chart is bullish and closed above 3000 for the first time since Sep 19 and at the same index valuation, 3006.

The closing candlestick is bullish for Tuesday. All the major moving averages are still climbing. This includes the 21, 50, 100 and 200 day moving averages.

The Bollinger Bands are now moving parallel indicating no real change in direction is expected as the index remains stuck sideways.

The two buy signals from September are still in place.

Stock Market Outlook review of Mon Oct 21 2019

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:

Momentum: Momentum is positive and rising.

• Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.

MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Tue Oct 15 2019. The up signal was strong on Monday.

• Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. 

Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator signal is positive and rising.

• Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.

Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place and is overbought for Tuesday. Overall the signal is more neutral than up or down. The chance of a dip on Tuesday is reasonably high for the morning especially.

• Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.

Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising.

• Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor.  It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.

Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is moving sideways indicating no meaningful change in prices is expected.

• Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.

Support and Resistance Levels To Be Aware Of:

3000 is resistance

2960 is light support

2950 was light support

2900 is light support

2860 is light support

2840 is support

2800 is strong support

2795 is light support

2745 to 2750 is light support

2725 is light support

2700 is light support

2675 is light support

2650 is support

2625 is light support

2600 is support.

 Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Tue Oct 22 2019 

Monday’s market was primarily about positive comments from China’s Vice Premier and Apple Stock. While it’s great to see the index push above 300 and finally close above 3000, investors need more than just Apple and China to get the index a lot higher from here. Earnings on Tuesday could provide some of what is needed as we get earnings from big caps like McDonalds Stock (MCD), Procter and Gamble Stock (PG), United Technologies Stock (UTX), United Parcel Service Stock (UPS), Kimberly-Clark Stock (KMB), Travelers Companies Stock (TRV), Nucor Stock (NUE), Lockheed Martin Stock (LMT) and others. If earnings surprise and beat expectations we should see a further move up.

Overall the morning looks to start weak as investors are nervous above 3000. A dip is likely but it is a buyable dip. The close will be higher again on Tuesday. As always, any negative news on the China trade talks will depress the indexes.

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