Prior Trading Day Summary
On Mon Nov 6 2023 Treasury yields continued to weaken and stocks pushed higher against sellers. The SPX advanced just 7 points as the index is facing a very overbought market.
The NASDAQ rose 40 points to end the day at 13,518.
Volumes dropped with the S&P seeing 3.7 billion shares traded and the NASDAQ traded 4.4 billion shares. New highs however, rose on Monday with the SPX making 36 new highs and the NASDAQ 46.
Weakness at this point is understandable and a second day of selling is also likely.
Let’s review the closing technical indicators from Mon Nov 6 2023 to see what to expect for Tue Nov 7 2023.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Mon Nov 6 2023
The index closed above all major moving averages on Monday for a second day.
The closing candlestick ended the day above 4350 with long shadows which signals overbought and a potential day of weakness for stocks.
The 21 day moving average bounced off the 200 day on Thursday and moved higher on again on Monday. This is bullish.
The 50, 100 and 200 day moving averages are all falling which is bearish. These though are lagging indicators and we should begin to see them turn higher, if the rally can continue.
The Lower Bollinger Band is turning lower which is bullish. The Upper Bollinger Band is also turning higher. This too is bullish.
The S&P chart is bearish but indicates the bounce has further to run this week.
Stock Market Outlook review of Mon Nov 6 2023
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is rising and positive.
|
MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Thu Nov 2. On Mon Nov 6 2023 the close saw a strong up signal.
|
Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising and positive. It is overbought.
|
Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place and is entering overbought readings.
|
Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising and positive. It is overbought.
|
Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling and positive. Normally after a sharp rally this is a signal that a dip is coming.
|
Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 4425 is resistance |
| 4410 is resistance |
| 4400 is resistance |
| 4390 is resistance |
| 4375 is resistance |
| 4350 is resistance |
| 4325 is support |
| 4300 is support |
| 4275 is light support |
| 4250 is light support |
| 4235 is light support |
| 4225 is support |
| 4200 is good support |
| 4185 is support |
| 4175 is support |
| 4150 is good support |
Stock Market Outlook for Tue Nov 7 2023
For Tuesday stocks are still overbought. Monday saw light buying during dips. Today dips could be deeper, falling to 4330 or even 4325 would not be unusual.
Tuesday will see a choppy day with dips and even a possible negative close. This would not change the bullish scenario however but simply signal the market is overbought.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
This week bond markets are closed on Friday which often assists the bulls on Friday. HIstorically this is a strong week for stocks. There are few economic reports this week that would disrupt the bulls. A number of Fed officials speak but nothing new is expected. Fed Chair Powell speaks on Wed and Thursday at IMF.
Monday:
There are no economic reports
Tuesday:
8:30 Trade Deficit is expected at -$59.8 billion
3:00 Consumer credit os expected to be $9.5 billion