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Stock Market Outlook for Tue Nov 5 2024 – Choppy and Weakness Ahead Of Election

Nov 5, 2024 | Stock Market Outlook

Choppy Weakness Ahead of election

Prior Trading Day Summary:

On Monday stocks swung as investors tried to decide which way the country will vote on Tuesday in the election. By the close the S&P was down 16 points to 5712. The NASDAQ was down 60 points to 18,180.  Losses were mild on Monday but volume was good with the S&P trading 3.6 billion shares and the NASDAQ 5.9 billion. With the election on Tuesday, investors are either on the sideline or planning to stay the course through the election.

Let’s review the technical signals from Mon Nov 4 2024 to see what they predict for Tue Nov 5 2024, Election Day.


Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Mon Nov 4 2024

The index closed at the Lower Bollinger Band and the 50 day moving average. This is bearish.

The closing candlestick is bearish forTuesday but once again it is signaling a chance for a bounce.

The 21 day moving average is at 5799 down 1 point. This is bearish.

The 50 day moving average is slightly higher at 5703. This is bearish as the uptrend is slowing.

The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 5587 which is bullish but slowing its advance..

The 200 day moving average is in an uptrend and closed at 5353 which is bullish.

The Lower Bollinger Band is below the 50 day moving average which is bearish. The Upper Bollinger Band is starting to turn up which may signal a move back up. We will need a couple of days to see how the Upper Bollinger Band performs.

The S&P chart is more bearish than bullish for Tuesday.

SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Mon Nov 4 2024


Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review

Momentum: Momentum is falling and negative.

  • Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.
MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Wed Oct 23 2024. On Mon Nov 4 2024 the down signal gained more strength.

  • Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. 
Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling and oversold. A bounce could happen at any time.

  • Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.
Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a down signal in place and is oversold.

  • Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.
Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling and is signaling oversold. A bounce could occur at any time.

  • Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor.  It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.
Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling which indicates a lower day is likely for Tuesday.

  • Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.

Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels

5890 is resistance
5875 is resistance
5850 is resistance
5815 is resistance
5800 is resistance
5790 is resistance
5775 is resistance
5765 is support
5750 is support
5725 is support
5700 is support
5680 is support
5650 is support
5625 is support
5600 is support


Stock Market Outlook for Tue Nov 5 2024 

For Tuesday the Election will have the most impact on stocks. As this is a very close election, the outlook is anyone’s guess and that is keeping the market on edge. Tuesday may see another bounce attempt but the index will see choppy trading ahead of the election results.


Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events

Monday:

10:00 Factory Orders came in as estimated, down -0.5%

Tuesday:

8:30 Trade deficit is expect to come in at -$84.0 billion

9:45 S&P final US services PMI is expected at 55.3

10:00 ISM Services is estimated to dip slightly to 53.7% down from 54.9%





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