Prior Trading Day Summary:
On Monday investors pushed stocks still higher breaking above 4550 but dipping to close at 4547, rising 33 points and keeping the market overbought and bullish.
The NASDAQ rose 159 points to end the day at 14,284.
Both indexes saw lackluster volumes but new highs on the SPX are well outpacing new lows. The S&P had 176 new highs versus 36 new lows while the NASDAQ had 119 new highs but still 109 new lows.
Today we get thee latest FOMC minutes at 2:00 PM.
Let’s review the closing technical indicators from Mon Nov 20 2023 to see what to expect for Tue Nov 21 2023.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Mon Nov 20 2023
The index closed above all major moving averages and continued to move away from the Upper Bollinger Band but higher. The outlook is still bullish.
The closing candlestick ended the day just below 4550 which is bullish and continues to signal an overbought market. The long shadow left at the close indicates some selling pressure should be expected on Tuesday.
The 21 day moving average continued to climb away from the 200 day which is bullish and is almost at the 100 day. A move above it would be a major up signal.
The 50 day moving average is moving further above the 100 day as it continues to try to bounce.
The 200 day moving average is climbing which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is moving lower which is bullish. The Upper Bollinger Band is turning higher which is also bullish.
The S&P chart is bullish and signals overbought heading into Tuesday.
Stock Market Outlook review of Mon Nov 20 2023
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is rising and positive.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Thu Nov 2. On Mon Nov 20 2023 the close saw more strength in the up signal.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising and positive. It is signaling overbought.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place and is very overbought.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising and positive. It is signaling very overbought.
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Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising and positive. It is signaling Tuesday we should see further advances.
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Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 4600 is resistance |
| 4590 is resistance |
| 4575 is resistance |
| 4565 is resistance |
| 4550 is resistance |
| 4535 is resistance |
| 4520 is resistance |
| 4500 is resistance |
| 4490 is resistance |
| 4475 is support |
| 4450 is support |
| 4440 is support |
| 4425 is support |
| 4400 is support |
| 4375 is support |
| 4350 is support |
| 4325 is support |
| 4300 is support |
| 4275 is light support |
| 4250 is light support |
| 4235 is light support |
| 4225 is support |
| 4200 is good support |
| 4185 is support |
| 4175 is support |
| 4150 is good support |
Stock Market Outlook for Tue Nov 21 2023
The technical indicators are very bullish but also continue to signal stocks are very overbought. Dips are still likely but they will continue to find ready buyers as many investors are not in the market and are looking for opportunities to enter. Dips will be seen as opportunities.
Volume could be higher around 2:00 when the latest FOMC minutes are released and any dips after the minutes are known, will be short-lived and make for a good trade opportunity.
For Tuesday the outlook is still higher for stocks by the close with dips likely intraday.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Tuesday is the latest FOMC minutes at 2:00 PM. This should be the major economic event for the week.
Monday:
10:00 Leading economic indicators are expected to be unchanged at -0.7% but came in at -0.8% which fits the narrative of a slowing economy.
Tuesday:
10:00 Existing home sales are expected to be 3.9 million
2:00 Latest FOMC minutes released