The SPX on Monday spent much of the day attempting to break through 4000. By the afternoon the index broke through and by 3:00 buyers ran into a wall of sellers. In the final hour of trading the index gave back the day’s gains to volume flip to 2 to 1 for decliners. The day ended with all 3 indexes lower.
The S&P dipped 35 points to close at 3957. The NASDAQ lost 127 points to close at 11,196.
The selling was not unexpected but I had expected most selling to occur in the morning and the index to push above 4000 in the afternoon and close above it. While a rather bearish outcome to end the day, selling after Thursday and Friday’s huge advance in the prior week, was to be expected.
Let’s review the closing SPX technical indicators from Monday to see if investors should expect more selling on Tuesday.
Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Mon Nov 14 2022
On Monday the S&P closing candlestick was still above all the major moving averages except the 200. The closing candlestick is bearish for Tuesday. The index managed to close at the Upper Bollinger Band which is often a bearish signal of a dip coming.
The Upper Bollinger Band has turned back up and is above all the major moving averages except the 200 day. This is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is back climbing which is bullish.
A new up signal was generated on Friday as the 21 day moving average is back above the 50 day. This is bullish and it negates the Sep 16 down signal when the 21 day fell below the 50 day. You will notice it is gone from the SPX chart below.
The 50, 100 and 200 day moving averages are still falling. This is bearish.
There are 6 down signals in place since April and one new up signal.
The chart is 65% bullish for Tuesday.
Stock Market Outlook review of Mon Nov 14 2022
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:
Momentum: Momentum is falling but still positive.
- Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.
MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Thursday Oct 16. On Monday the up signal gained more strength. The histogram also gained strength.
- Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9.
Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling.
- Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.
Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place and is entering overbought readings.
Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.
Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling away from overbought readings.
- Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor. It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.
Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising and positive.
- Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.
Support and Resistance Levels To Be Aware Of:
4100 is resistance
4090 is resistance
4070 is resistance
4050 is resistance
4030 is resistance
4025 is resistance
4000 is resistance
3975 is resistance
3965 is resistance
3950 is resistance
3925 is light support
3900 is light support
3875 is light support
3850 is light support
3825 is light support
3800 is good support
Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Tue Nov 15 2022
Friday’s up signal from the 21 day moving average climbing above the 50 day, continued on Monday. However the closing candlestick is warning the index could be facing a lower close.
The selling in the final hour of trading on Monday is a common event in bear markets and we have seen it occur repeatedly in this bear market. After a huge rally on Thursday and Friday last week, profit-taking is not unusual.
The technical indicators though are signaling we could see a change in the trend. We will know more after Tuesday’s close but for now, stay cautious and watch market breadth to see if it returns to overweight bulls. Dips are likely on Tuesday and there is a strong chance for a lower close. We get earnings from Home Depot Stock (HD) and Walmart Stock (WMT). These two giant companies will give a good idea how the economy is doing.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
On Monday Fed inflation expectations were on the high side of estimates. The market initially slipped on the reports and then recovered to eventually move above 4000 in the afternoon. The reports show that the Fed will continue raising rates next month and probably the start of the next year. That could have weighed on investors in the final hour of trading on Monday and resulted in some of the selling pressure.
Tuesday investors get the PPI report and that could move markets.
Monday:
11:00 NY Fed 1 year inflation expectations was expected to come in below 5.7% but instead came in at 5.9%.
11:00 NY Fed 5 year inflation expectations was expected to come in at 2.2% but came in a 2.4%.
Tuesday:
8:30 Producer price index expect to come in at 0.4%
8:30 Empire State manufacturing index expect to come in at -6.0
11:00 Real house debt and mortgage debt
Stock Market Outlook Archives
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Stock Market Outlook For Fri May 1 2026 – Overbought But Higher
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Stock Market Outlook For Thu Apr 30 2026 – Dips Likely Possible Lower Close
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Apr 29 2026
Stock Market Outlook For Wed Apr 29 2026 – Choppy But Higher Ahead Of More Earnings
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