Monday saw an early morning dip which was expected as the outlook was for weakness but for markets to continue to hold a positive bias. After the early morning dip, the S&P climbed in a slow grind higher. You can see in the intraday chart below set for 5 minutes that each little high had a rising low. Half an hour before the close the market spiked higher but that brought in sellers who pushed back, sending the S&P down. The final 10 minutes saw buyers return and the S&P closed positive by a couple of points. Generally it was a sideways day but if we look at the opening drop, then we could say the S&P rose 13 points or about half a percent in the day.
S&P 500 Index Close
The S&P index ended up 2.54 to 2587.66
Dow Jones Index Close
The Dow Jones ended up 17.49 to 23439.70
NASDAQ Index Close
The NASDAQ closed up 6.66 to 6757.60
Stock Market Outlook
Chart Comments At The Close:
On Monday the day ended almost flat but it may have set the market for a move higher on Tuesday as the S&P closed back above the 21 day exponential moving average (EMA). The closing candlestick was bullish for Tuesday.
The Bollinger Bands Squeeze is continuing. All major moving averages are still rising.
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators:
Momentum: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction. Momentum is rising.
MACD Histogram: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a sell signal on Oct 24. The sell signal gained strength on Monday.
Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months. The Ultimate Oscillator signal is sideways.
Slow Stochastic: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day. The Slow Stochastic for Tuesday is negative and overbought.
Relative Strength Index: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor. It often is the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal. The RSI signal is trying to rise.
Rate of Change: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. The rate of change signal is positive and moving sideways indicating not a lot of change is expected over the next few days.
Support Levels To Be Aware Of:
There is support at the 2550 level which could assist in pushing the index higher in November.
The S&P has light support at 2480. It also has light support at 2450 and good support at 2425. Below that there is some support at 2400, 2380, 2350. 2300 has the most support at present.
Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Tue Nov 14 2017
For Tue Nov 14 2017 there are still two sell signals in place, the MACD and the Slow Stochastic. The Rate Of Change is positive and pointing to no change in prices. The remaining 3 indicators are all either sideways or trying to rise.
Technically the outlook is still for stocks to move higher but the weakness is still with the market. The market remains waiting for some news on the tax reform bill before deciding whether to rally higher or sell lower.
Tuesday should see more weakness but a sideways to slightly bias up day.
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