Prior Trading Day Summary:
On Monday investors took profits from the rally above the 200 day moving average. The close saw the S&P down 36 points but still above the 200 day moving average which is bullish. Volume was 4.4 billion shares traded with 65% of stocks slipping.
The NASDAQ fell 133 points by the close ending the day at 17,844. New highs were 103, almost double the new lows of 65. 63% of all stocks were falling by the close.
Let’s review the technical indicators from the close on Mon May 5 2025 to see what we should expect for Tue May 6 2025.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Mon May 5 2025
The index closed above the 50 day, 21 day and most important, above the 200 day moving average. This is bullish although a test of the 200 day is still probable..
The closing candlestick is bullish but the long shadow signals a choppy day and dips could again be deeper than expected.
The 21 day moving average is rising and closed at 5380. The 21 day moving average fell below the 50 day on Friday Mar 7. It fell below the 100 day on Thursday Mar 13 for a second down signal and on Friday Mar 28 it fell below the 200 day for a third down signal.
The 50 day moving average is rising and closed at 5575 which is bullish. The 50 day moving average fell below the 100 day on Tue April 15. which issued a 4th down signal on the SPX. The 50 day on Friday fell below the 200 day for a 5th down signal.
The 100 day moving average is unchanged and closed at 5677 which is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is unchanged and closed at 5638 which is bullish.
All the moving averages are rising or unchanged which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is falling which is bullish. The Upper Bollinger Band is rising which is bullish.
For Tuesday the SPX chart is becoming more bullish although a test of the 200 day is still likely.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Mon May 5 2025
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is rising and positive.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Tue Apr 22 2025. On Mon May 5 2025 the up signal lost some strength.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling and positive.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic is overbought and has a down signal at the close on Monday.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling and overbought.
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| Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising indicating a higher day is expected.. Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline. |
Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 5700 is resistance |
| 5650 is resistance |
| 5630 is resistance |
| 5600 is resistance |
| 5550 is resistance |
| 5500 is resistance |
| 5450 is resistance |
| 5400 is support |
| 5350 is support |
| 5300 is support |
| 5230 is support |
| 5000 is support |
| 4770 is support |
| 4680 is support |
| 4500 is support |
| 4365 is support |
| 4150 is support |
| 4000 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Tue May 6 2025
For Tuesday the technical indicators are advising that the market is still going to test the 200 day moving average but in what will be a choppy day but a higher close is still possible.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
9:45 S&P final services PMI dipped to 50.8 which was lower than estimated
10:00 ISM services rose to 51.6% which was higher than estimated and the prior reading
Tuesday:
8:30 Trade Deficit is estimated to fall to -$137.68 billion from -$122.7 billion