Stock Market Outlook for Tue Mar 4 2025 – Sell-Off Continues – Possible Bounce Today But Lower

Prior Trading Day Summary:

On Friday stocks soared higher and on Monday they gave back Friday’s rally as fear of a slowdown, recession, tariffs etc., returned. Even news that the US is pausing Ukraine aid seemed to affect. At the same time, we have not heard much about, if the economy is slowing, then would interest rates be cut sooner rather than later? There are a lot of unanswered questions but much of Monday’s decline was investors who bought on Friday sold out today and moved back to the sidelines.

The S&P slipped to 5810 before bouncing in the final 20 minutes to close down 104 points to end the day at 5850. This has been a support level from last fall so a bounce back to it on Monday was to be expected.

There is still a good chance the SPX may fall to 5800 on Tuesday before attempting again to bounce.

On Monday the SPX traded 5.7 billion shares which was 900 million less than Friday’s volume. New highs jumped to 111 while new lows rose to 200. 79% of all volume was being traded lower and 68% of all stocks were falling.

The NASDAQ saw 8.4 billion shares traded. It fell 497 points after a rally of 302 points on Friday. 76% of all stocks were falling and 77% of all volume was being traded lower. There were 515 new 52 week lows beating Friday’s 409 new 52 week lows.

Let’s review the SPX technical indicators from Mon Mar 3 2025 to see what to expect for Tue Mar 4 2025.

Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Mon Mar 3 2025

The index fell back below the 100 day moving average and below the Lower Bollinger Band. This is bearish.

The closing candlestick has a long shadow which indicates there is a chance for a bounce intraday on Tuesday. Overall the candlestick is bearish.

The 21 day moving average is falling and closed at 6029 which is bearish.

The 50 day moving average is falling and closed at 5994 which is bearish.

The 100 day moving average is falling and closed at 5916 which is bearish.

The 200 day moving average is rising and closed at 5706 which is bullish.

The Lower Bollinger Band is falling which is bearish at present. The Upper Bollinger Band is trending higher which is bullish.

For Tuesday the SPX chart is bearish even with a chance for another bounce.

SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Mon Mar 3 2025

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review

Stock Market Outlook for Tue Mar 4 2025 

For Tuesday stocks are once again oversold but after a sell-off two out of three days it would be rare for the SPX to regain its footing without dipping still lower. Many investors were caught on Friday buying stocks only to sell them out Monday as the index gave back Friday’s rally.

Investors are grappling with many unknowns and that is wearing investors down. The SPX index for Tuesday could attempt a bounce but the sell-off should try to reach at least the 5800 level. The 200 day moving average is down at 5700. I don’t expect the SPX to reach that level on Tuesday, but if more uncertainties develop, we could see the index reach that level, fairly easily. That though should bring in buyers if there are signs stocks are extremely oversold. At present the SPX is down 4.9% since the index made a new all-time high on Feb 19 of 6147.

Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events

Monday:

9:45 S&P final manufacturing PMI was higher than expected at 52.7 which defied the outlook for a recession

10:00 Construction spending fell lower than expected to -0.2%

10:00 ISM manufacturing slipped to 50.3% but was still above 50% which is a signal of expansion

Tuesday:

There are no economic reports