Prior Trading Day Summary:
On Monday low trading volumes hindered the chance of a positive close. The SPX saw just 3.4 billion shares traded. This matches the volume on last Friday. While poor , it is also bullish as it shows a lack of selling interest. Investors are sitting patiently waiting for the market to move higher. Loses were slight again.
The SPX lost just 16 points to close at 5218.
The NASDAQ lost 44 points to close at 16384.
We could see the SPX slip to test 5200 as that important valuation has not been tested since stocks moved above it. A retest is likely before the rally higher restarts.
Let’s review the close on Mon Mar 25 2024 to see what to expect for Tue Mar 26 2024.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Fri Mar 22 2024
The index closed below the Upper Bollinger Band and well above the 21 day moving average. This is still bullish for the index.
The closing candlestick is bullish for Tuesday and indicates there is a possible bounce.
The 21 day moving average is moving higher which is bullish. It is at 5143 on the SPX.
The 50 day moving average is rising and at 5018, which is bullish.
The 100 and 200 day moving averages are climbing which is bullish. The 200 day is at 4652 on the SPX which is bullish.
The Bollinger Bands are still in a Bollinger Bands Squeeze. The Lower Bollinger Band is above the 50 day moving average and starting to dip back which is usually bullish coming out of the Bollinger Bands Squeeze. The Upper Bollinger Band is turning higher which signals the SPX index is in an uptrend. This is bullish.
The S&P chart is bullish for Tuesday.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Mon Mar 25 2024
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is rising and positive.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Thu Mar 21. On Mon Mar 25 2024 the up signal gained strength. The histogram is positive for a third day.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is slipping slightly and positive.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place and is overbought.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling and positive. It is leaving overbought.
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Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling indicating Tuesday will see some dips and sideways action at times.
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Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 5275 is resistance |
| 5250 is resistance |
| 5225 is resistance |
| 5200 is resistance |
| 5190 is resistance |
| 5175 is resistance |
| 5150 is resistance |
| 5125 is resistance |
| 5115 is resistance |
| 5100 is support |
| 5075 is support |
| 5050 is support |
| 5025 is support |
| 5000 is light support |
| 4990 is light support |
| 4975 is light support |
| 4950 is support |
| 4925 is support |
| 4915 is support |
| 4900 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Tue Mar 26 2024
For Tuesday we could see much of the same sideways motion. The market though is positioned to move higher, it just needs a spark.
The technical indicators are still bullish. Even those that are starting to fall remain bullish.
On Tuesday there are economic events that could assist the market to move higher. They are listed below. Any weakness on Tuesday will again be slight.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Tuesday we get durable goods orders and consumer confidence. Friday is a holiday but the PCE numbers are released at 8:30 and Fed Chair Powell speaks at 11:30.
Monday:
10:00 New home sales are estimated to be lower at 675,000
Tuesday:
8:30 Durable goods order are expected to rise to 1% from -6.2%
9:00 S&P Case-Shiller home price index
10:00 Consumer confidence is expected to be unchanged at 106.5