Stock Market Outlook for Tue Mar 23 2021 – Choppy, Dips Likely But Higher

On Monday all three indexes closed higher with the S&P up 27 points to 3940. Intraday the SPX reached 3955 before dipping back in the final hour of trading.

Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Mon Mar 22 2021 

The Upper Bollinger Band is not moving higher but instead is trending sideways which is a bit bearish. The Lower Bollinger Band is falling which is bullish.

The 21 day is still trying to rise while the 50 day is dipping lower. Neither is bullish.

The closing candlestick on Monday is bullish for Tuesday.

The 100 and 200 day moving averages are all climbing higher. and the index is still above the 21 day moving average which is bullish. A close below it would be bearish at this point in the rally.

Stock Market Outlook review of Mon Mar 22 2021

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:

Momentum: Momentum is rising and positive.

• Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.

MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Thursday March 11 2021. On Monday the up signal lost more strength.

• Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. 

Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling.

• Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.

Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a down signal in place for a third day and is overbought.

Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.

Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising.

• Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor.  It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.

Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising which is a signal that we will see price changes on Tuesday.

• Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.

Support and Resistance Levels To Be Aware Of:

4000 is resistance

3900 is support

3850 is support

3800 is support

3750 is good support and the 100 day is at this level

3700 is light support

3680 is light support – The 100 day moving average is at this valuation.

3600 is strong support

3550 is support – The 200 day is at this level. A drop this low would be a 10% correction.

3500 is strong support

3450 is support

 Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Tue Mar 23 2021 

For Tuesday the technical indicators are rather mixed and most concerning is MACD continuing to lose strength. We could see a negative day shortly.

Tuesday though should start lower and could retest 3930 before trying to climb back toward 3945 and 3950.

Tuesday will see a choppy trading session and volatility should rise but much of the day will see the SPX trying to trade higher.

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