My outlook for Monday had not expected a spreading of the regional banking problems. Considering all the negative news and stocks plunges of most regional banks, the indexes actually held up well with the all three turning positive a number of times intraday and the NASDAQ managing to close positive by the close. For the S&P losses were minor.
Let’s review the closing technical indicators from Mon Mar 13 to see what we should expect for Tue Mar 14 2023.
Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Mon Mar 13 2023
On Monday the S&P closed back below all the moving averages and below the Lower Bollinger Band again. This is bearish but once again also signals a potential bounce.
The index closed with a bearish outlook for Tuesday with the closing candlestick showing indecision on the part of investors. Fear of further banking trouble continues to bring back memories of the credit crisis. Investors are nervous. At the same time, most investors know the market could snap back sharply and investors don’t want to miss any such rally.
The Upper Bollinger Band is starting to turn up signaling a potential bounce and the Lower Bollinger Band is turning sharply lower which indicates Tuesday will see a further decline.
The 200 day moving average is falling back which is bearish. The 21 day is falling which is bearish and is almost ready to fall below the 200 day for a new down signal. The 50 day moving average is also turning lower with the 100 day also dropping.
At present there is just one down signal in place since April 24 and 5 up signals since Jan 13. However we need to see the 50 and 100 day moving averages climb above the 200 day to end the last remaining down signal.
The chart is bearish.
Stock Market Outlook review of Mon Mar 13 2023
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:
Momentum: Momentum is falling and negative.
- Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.
MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) down signal gained more strength on Monday. The histogram also showed more selling pressure building.
- Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9.
Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising and negative. It is showing oversold.
- Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.
Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a down signal in place showing oversold.
Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.
Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling, negative and showing deeply oversold.
- Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor. It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.
Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising, negative and at deeply oversold readings.
- Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.
Support and Resistance Levels To Be Aware Of:
4100 is resistance
4090 is resistance
4075 is resistance
4050 is resistance
4030 is resistance
4025 is resistance
4000 is resistance
3975 is light support
3965 is light support
3950 is good support
3930 is light support
3900 is good support
3870 is light support
3850 is good support
3825 is light support
3810 is light support
3800 is good support
3775 is good support
Stock Market Outlook for Tue Mar 14 2023
On Tuesday the SPX is once again showing signals that it will move lower and probably retest the 3850 level.
With investors extremely cautious, the technical indicators are showing the index as very oversold with a good chance for a bounce. However with worries continuing over rising interest rates, a potential recession and now the banking worries, investors have to wonder how much upside is there for any bounce at present. For that reason alone, the chance of further downside on Tuesday is high. Staying cautious is a good choice as it appears the banking issues will take some time to work out.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Today we get a number of CPI reports. These may swing the market lower although at present many analysts may now believe the CPI numbers are “in the past”.
Stock Market Outlook Archives
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Stock Market Outlook For Fri May 1 2026 – Overbought But Higher
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Stock Market Outlook For Thu Apr 30 2026 – Dips Likely Possible Lower Close
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Apr 29 2026
Stock Market Outlook For Wed Apr 29 2026 – Choppy But Higher Ahead Of More Earnings
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