Prior Trading Day Summary:
On Monday investors continued to sell tech stocks that have run higher. These included Supermicro Stock (SMCI), NVIDIA Stock (NVDA), Broadcom Stock (AVGO), Advanced Micro Devices Stock (AMD), Taiwan Semiconductor Stock (TSM), Micron Technology Stock (MU), ARM Stock (ARM) and more. Apple Stock however did not sell lower but instead closed back at the $170 valuation while spending most of the day trading around $173 and dipping into the close. Even Microsoft Stock (MSFT) failed to break below $400 but instead closed at $406. Selling was more muted on Monday and volume were lower on both indexes. The Dow Jones index closed positive.
By the close of the day investors were back buying. The SPX closed down just 5 points at 5118. The NASDAQ closed down 65 points at 16019. Even the Russell 2000 closed down just 16 points at 2065.
The morning selling and the late day rally back made some changes in the technical indicators which can be reviewed below.
Let’s review Mon Mar 11 2024 to see what to expect for Tue Mar 12 2024.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Mon Mar 11 2024
The index closed below the Upper Bollinger Band which is still bullish.
The closing candlestick is signaling a strong possibility of another bounce attempt on Tuesday.
The 21 day moving average is moving higher which is bullish. It is at 5055 on the SPX.
The 50 day moving average is rising and at 4920, which is bullish.
The 100 and 200 day moving averages are climbing which is bullish. The 200 day is at 4590 on the SPX which is bullish.
The Bollinger Bands are still in a Bollinger Bands Squeeze. The Lower Bollinger Band is still undecided with further signs of a coming dip.
The S&P chart is more bullish than bearish for Tuesday.
Stock Market Outlook review of Mon Mar 11 2024
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is rising and positive.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Tue Mar 5. On Mon Mar 11 2024 the down signal gained strength.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising and positive.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a weak down signal in place and is slightly overbought.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling and positive.
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Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling and signaling a lower close is expected on Tuesday.
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Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 5175 is resistance |
| 5150 is resistance |
| 5125 is resistance |
| 5115 is resistance |
| 5100 is resistance |
| 5090 is resistance |
| 5075 is resistance |
| 5050 is resistance |
| 5025 is resistance |
| 5010 is resistance |
| 5000 is resistance |
| 4990 is resistance |
| 4975 is light support |
| 4950 is support |
| 4925 is support |
| 4915 is support |
| 4900 is support |
| 4875 is support |
| 4850 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Tue Mar 12 2024
For Tuesday the technical indicators are still signaling weakness but the closing candlestick from Monday is signaling a bounce is likely and momentum is supportive of a bounce attempt.
Much of the day’s market direction, especially in the morning, will be determined by the Consumer Price Index readings. However once the initial reading is over, investos will continue to stay focused on the likelihood of a Fed rate cut.
On Tuesday the morning will probably open higher, then sell lower and rallyback up. A positive close is likely.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
This is a busy week for reports with CPI on Tuesday and PPI on Thursday.
Monday:
No economic reports due out.
Tuesday:
8:30 Consumer price index for February is expected to be 0.4%, up slightly from January’s 0.3%.
8:30 Core CPI is expected to be lower at 0.3% following last month’s 0.4%
8:30 CPI year-over-year is estimated unchanged at 3.1%
8:30 Core CPI year-over-year is expected to be lower at 3.7%, down from 3.9 prior.
2:00 Monthly Federal budget is estimated at -$250 billion, up from -$262 billion for the month