Prior Trading Day Summary:
On Monday recession fears continued to dominate investor sentiment and stocks fell lower, trading all day below the 200 day moving average on the SPX. The index broke through 5600 intraday but managed to rebound to close at 5614. It was an ugly day with 6.4 billion shares traded, 76% of which were falling. By the close 78% of all stocks were lower with the SPX ending the day at 5614.
The NASDAQ lost 728 points to close at 17468, placing the index in technically correction territory. 80% of all stocks on the NASDAQ were falling.
It was a rough day for all indexes and it left stocks deeply oversold. But whether it is deep enough to see a bounce attempt is anyone’s guess as investor sentiment has changed to strongly bearish.
Let’s review the SPX technical indicators from Mon Mar 10 2025 to see what to expect for Tue Mar 11 2025.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Mon Mar 10 2025
The index traded below the 200 day moving average the entire day on Monday which is bearish.
The closing candlestick has one long shadow suggesting a chance for a bounce on Tuesday.
The 21 day moving average is falling and closed at 5959 which is bearish. The 21 day moving average fell below the 50 day on Friday which is a major down signal.
The 50 day moving average is falling and closed at 5975 which is bearish.
The 100 day moving average is falling and closed at 5900 which is bearish.
The 200 day moving average is falling and closed at 5708 which is bearish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is falling which is bearish at present. The Upper Bollinger Band climbing which is bearish, suggesting more downside to come.
For Monday the SPX chart is strongly bearish despite signaling the SPX is very oversold.
Stock Market Outlook revview of Mon Mar 10 2025
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is falling, negative and oversold.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Mon Feb 21 2025. The down signal was stronger on Mon Mar 10 2025. It is at levels signaling the SPX is oversold.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a down signal in place and is oversold.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling and oversold.
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Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling, signaling Tuesday will end lower.
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Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 6000 is resistance |
| 5970 is resistance |
| 5950 is resistance |
| 5900 is resistance |
| 5890 is resistance |
| 5875 is resistance |
| 5850 is resistance |
| 5800 is resistance |
| 5775 is support |
| 5750 is support |
| 5730 is support |
| 5700 is support |
| 5650 is support |
| 5630 is support |
| 5600 is support |
| 5585 is support |
| 5550 is support |
| 5500 is support |
| 5450 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Tue Mar 11 2025
Selling was steady the entire day on Monday. The SPX is down roughly 533 points from its high on Feb 19 of 6147. This compares to the sell-off from July 16 to August 5 2024 when the SPX lost 550 points. In that sell-off the VIX index jumped to over 38 on August 4. On Monday, the VIX jumped to 29.56. This is not panic levels in the VIX but close enough to point to stocks as very oversold. More analysts are advising investors to prepare to jump into stocks like NVIDIA that are deeply oversold. All the technical indicators are now negative and point to oversold. The SPX chart is also signaling oversold. Eventually we will see a bounce but whether it is Tuesday is a best guess. Investors may wait for the Consumer Price Index numbers on Wednesday before risking capital on a potential bounce.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
There are no economic reports
Tuesday:
6:00 NFIB optimism index is expected to slip to 101.0 from 102.8
10:00 Job openings are estimated unchanged at 7.6 million.