Stock Market Outlook for Tue Jun 4 2024 – MACD Down Signal Confirmed

Prior Trading Day Summary:

On Mon Jun 3 2024 stocks slipped intraday with the S&P falling to 5234 before staging a rally to close slightly higher, up 6 points to 5283. Volume though was biased to the downside with 58% of all volume moving lower and 47% of all stocks falling.

The NASDAQ closed up 93 points to 16,828 with much stronger up volume than New York saw. 62% of all volume was to the upside but only 47% of all stocks were rising.

By the close on Monday, the MACD down signal from last Thursday (May 30), had been confirmed.

Let review the closing technical signals from Mon Jun 3 2024 to see how what to expect for Tue Jun 4 2024.

Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Mon Jun 3 2024

The index closed above the 21 day moving average which is bullish.

The closing candlestick is bullish but the long shadow (tail) is a warning there will be some selling on Tuesday.

The 21 day moving average is still climbing continuing the latest up signal.

The 50 day moving average is climbing which is bullish.

The 200 day moving average is still climbing. The 200 day is at 4852 which is bullish and the 100 day is also climbing to 5064.

The Lower Bollinger Band is now above the 100 day moving average and approaching the 50 day moving average. The Upper Bollinger Band is turned lower as the SPX is entering a new Bollinger Bands Squeeze.

The S&P chart is more bullish than bearish but there are warnings of weakness from the closing candlestick and the Bollinger Bands Squeeze to contend with.

SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Mon Jun 3 2024 – chart courtesy TradingView

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review

Stock Market Outlook for Tue Jun 4 2024 

For Tuesday with the MACD down signal confirmed, there will be some selling to contend with. The day though still has a good chance to close positive although the technical indicators are pointing to a lower close on Tuesday.

On Monday the economic signals were mixed which also weighed on stocks. The Flash manufacturing PMI was higher than expected while construction spending was negative. ISM manufacturing also surprised as it moved lower. The signals on Monday presented a picture of an economy that is continuing to show some slight weakness but is still quite steady. On Tuesday the jobs openings will be important.

Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events

This is a big week for economic numbers culminating in the May non-farm payroll numbers due out on Friday June 7 at 8:30.

Monday:

9:45 S&P flash manufacturing PMI was expected to slip slightly to 50.7 from 50.9 but rose to 51.3

10:00 Construction spending for April was expecting to rise to 0.2% from negative 0.2% prior but instead it fell to -0.1%

10:00 ISM manufacturing for May was expected to rise to 49.6% from 49.2% but fell instead to 48.7%

Auto Sales are released during the morning were expected to be around 15.9 million units but came in at 15.7 million

Tuesday:

10:00 Factory orders are expected to fall to 0.7% from 1.6% prior

10:00 Job openings are expected to slip slightly to 8.4 million from 8.5 million