Stock Market Outlook For Tue Jun 27 2023 – MACD Unconfirmed Down Signal But Possible Second Bounce Attempt

Day’s Summary

Monday saw continued selling pressure with a small failed bounce attempt at the open and again over the lunch hour and into the close. None worked and indeed each was lower than the prior bounce attempt, a bearish sign.

By the close of the day the S&P was down 19 points to end the day at 4328.

The NASDAQ fell more than Friday’s slip, losing 156 points to end at 13,335.

Trading volume was slightly below average but there was no panic type of moves. Indeed the VIX volatility index ended that day at 14.12, down slightly from Friday’s close.

Let’s review the SPX closing technical indicators from Mon Jun 26 2023 to see what to expect for Tue Jun 27 2023.

Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Mon Jun 26 2023

The index closed below the Upper Bollinger Band which is bearish.

The closing candlestick is bearish is often seen just before another bounce attempt. The index could slip on Tuesday down to the 21 day moving average and then try to bounce.

The 21, 50 an 100 day moving averages are continuing to climb which is bullish, but the 200 day is slipping lower. The Lower Bollinger Band is rising and on Monday moved above the 100 day moving average which is bearish. You can see that the Upper Bollinger Band is falling. We may be seeing the start of a Bollinger Bands Squeeze. We will know more as the week progresses.

The S&P chart is somewhat bullish but there are growing signs of more weakness in the chart.

Stock Market Outlook review of Mon Jun 26 2023

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review

Stock Market Outlook for Tue Jun 27 2023 

For Tuesday the index will be dealing with a new MACD down signal. At the same time there are other signals, including the closing candlestick, which advises a second bounce attempt could be in the works.

As well, often when all the technical indicators turn down and signal negative outlooks, the market will bounce. On Tuesday we could see a second bounce attempt but there are signals that investors should stay cautious as most signals are advising the index may slip possibly as low as 4250 or 4200 before trying to stage any kind of meaningful rebound attempt.

Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events

Tuesday:

8:30 Durable goods orders are expected to turn negative at -0.9%

9:00 S&P Case-Shiller home price index

10:00 New Home Sales are expected to slip to 675,000

10:00 Consumer confidence is expected to rise to 104