Prior Trading Day Summary:
On Monday the SPX opened lower on light selling but within an hour the buyers had returned. By the end of the day the S&P was at a new all-time high in a convincing rally of 41 points. The SPX closed at 5473.
The NASDAQ also reached a new all-time high as it rose 168 points to close at 17,857.
Indexes rose on Monday as investors remain convinced the Fed will have to cut rates more than once this year.
With retail sales out on Tuesday, let review the closing technical signals from Mon Jun 17 2024 to see what to expect for Tue Jun 18 2024.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Mon Jun 17 2024
The index closed above the 21 day moving average and at the Upper Bollinger Band. This is bullish and signals overbought.
The closing candlestick is bullish for Tuesday..
The 21 day moving average is still climbing continuing the latest up signal.
The 50 day moving average is climbing which is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is still climbing. The 200 day is at 4902 which is bullish and the 100 day is also climbing to 5123.
The Lower Bollinger Band is falling below the 50 day moving average and the Upper Bollinger Band is rising. The latest Bollinger Bands Squeeze is ending with the SPX moving higher.
The S&P chart is bullish for Tuesday despite signaling overbought.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Mon Jun 17 2024
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is rising and positive.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Thu Jun 6 2024. On Mon Jun 17 2024 the up signal was stronger. The MACD histogram gained strength.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling and positive.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place and is overbought.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is risingand overbought.
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Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising signaling that Tuesday will end higher.
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Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 5500 is resistance |
| 5490 is resistance |
| 5475 is resistance |
| 5465 is resistance |
| 5450 is resistance |
| 5425 is resistance |
| 5400 is resistance |
| 5375 is resistance |
| 5350 is resistance |
| 5325 is resistance |
| 5310 is resistance |
| 5300 is resistance |
| 5275 is support |
| 5250 is light support |
| 5225 is light support |
| 5200 is good support |
| 5190 is light support |
Stock Market Outlook for Tue Jun 18 2024
For Tuesday the technical indicators are almost all pointing to a higher day but with a chance for an early morning dip as markets remain overbought.
Retail sales are released today at 8:30 which could stall the rally if they show too much strength.
Overall though the outlook is still higher for the SPX on Tuesday.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
The biggest economic events this week are retail sales on Tuesday and PMI numbers on Friday.
Monday:
8:30 Empire State manufacturing survey is expected to rise to -10.5 from -15.6 prior
Tuesday:
8:30 Retail sales are estimated to rise slightly to 0.2% from 0.0%
9:15 Industrial production is estimated to rise to 0.4% from 0.0%
9:15 Capacity utilization is estimated at 78.6% versus 78.4% prior
10:00 Business inventories are expected to rise to 0.3% from -0.1%