Stock Market Outlook for Tue Jun 18 2019 – Sideways With Up Bias Ahead Of Fed Interest Rate Decision

Sideways with up bias still in place

On Monday the S&P opened higher, dipped slightly and then attempted to challenge the 2900 level, coming within 3 points of reaching it. From there though, low volume and a lack of buyers saw the index fall back and close up just 2.69 points.


Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Mon Jun 17 2019 

On Monday the index closed above the 50 day moving average for a sixth day but the lack of buyers left behind a neutral candlestick for Tuesday.

There is still one sell signal in play but the 21 day is still turning higher and should it move above the 50 day, it will negate that sell signal.

The Upper Bollinger Band is moving higher and the Lower Bollinger Band is moving lower indicating more upside is expected.

Aside from the one sell signal, the chart is very bullish with the major moving averages are climbing higher with the 200 day nearing the 2800 level.

Stock Market Outlook review of Mon Jun 17 2019


Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:

Momentum: Momentum is positive and rising.

  • Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.

MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Thursday June 6. The up signal was a bit weaker again on Monday but not enough to change the trend up.

  • Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. 

Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator signal is negative and for the most part unchanged.

  • Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.

Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic signal is pointing slightly up but is more neutral than either up or down.

  • Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.

Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is sideways and it is overbought.

  • Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor.  It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.

Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is in a slight dip for a third day which indicates some weakness again on Tuesday and possibly Wednesday morning.

  • Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.





Support Resistance Levels To Be Aware Of:

2950 is resistance

2900 is resistance

2860 is light support

2830 is light support

2800 is strong support

2795 is light support

2745 to 2750 is light support

2725 is light support

2700 is light support

2675 is light support

2650 is support

2625 is light support

2600 is support.

There was good support at the 2550 level which is back to being support.

The 2500 level is support.

The S&P has light support at 2480 and better support at 2450.

There is good support at 2425.

Below that there is some support at 2400, 2380, 2350.


 Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Tue Jun 18 2019 

For Tuesday the technical indicators are almost unchanged from Friday’s signals. The index is stuck moving slightly higher ahead of the Fed’s decision on interest rates due 2:00 PM on Wednesday.

Tuesday should see another slightly positive close, and the index may try to challenge the 2900 valuation again, but overall most investors are sitting it out and waiting for the interest rate decision from the Fed which is released Wednesday afternoon.

Tuesday should see another slightly higher close even though the index is set to move primarily sideways.


 

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