Prior Trading Day Summary:
On Mon Jun 16 2025 stocks jumped at the open, reaching above 6000. From there stocks climbed until around 10:30 when the day’s high was made. From there the remainder of the day saw a gradual but choppy move lower with repeated spikes. The close saw the S&P at 6033, up 56 points on the day, almost wiping out Friday’s loss of 68 points.
The NASDAQ closed up 294 points to end the day at 19701, wiping out all of Friday’s decline of 255 points.
Both indexes saw steady volume with a heavy bias to the upside as investors looked past the Israel-Iran fighting as most investors focused on news reports indicating Iran was seeking a ceasefire. The ceasefire was not announced however which may weigh on stocks for Tuesday’s open.
Lets review the SPX technical indicators from the close on Mon Jun 16 2025 to see what we should expect for Tue Jun 17 2025.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Mon Jun 16 2025
The index closed above all major moving averages which is bullish.
The closing candlestick is bullish for Tuesday although a short shadow would indicate the day on Tuesday will start lower, see some weakness and then probably move higher.
The 21 day moving average is rising and closed at 5948 which is bullish. The rise however is slowing. There are now just two down signals left from the March 7 and Mar 14.
The 50 day moving average is rising and closed at 5680 which is bullish. The 50 day is turning higher toward the 200 day and could move above it this week.
The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 5780 which is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is rising and closed at 5704 which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is above the 100 day and moving sideways. The Upper Bollinger Band is moving higher within the Bollinger Bands Squeeze which is bullish.
For Tue Jun 17 2025 the SPX chart is more bullish than bearish but the closing candlestick is warning of weakness to start the day.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Mon Jun 16 2025
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is rising and positive..
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Fri May 30. The down signal was stronger on Mon Jun 16 2025.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a down signal in place.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising.
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| Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising signaling Tuesday will end higher. Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline. |
Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 6050 is resistance |
| 6025 is resistance |
| 6015 is resistance |
| 6000 is resistance |
| 5990 is resistance |
| 5975 is resistance |
| 5950 is resistance |
| 5925 is resistance |
| 5900 is resistance |
| 5850 is resistance |
| 5800 is support |
| 5785 is support |
| 5750 is support |
| 5700 is support |
| 5650 is support |
| 5630 is support |
| 5600 is support |
| 5550 is support |
| 5500 is support |
| 5475 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Tue Jun 17 2025
For Tue Jun 17 2025, the technical indicators show the opening or near the open will be lower. The day will be choppy but the close is expected to be higher. With concerns remaining over the Israel-Iran conflict many investors are continuing to stay positive and believe any conflict will be short-lived. Tomorrow, Wed Jun 18 2025, investors get the latest interest rate decision from Fed Chair Powell. The odds of any change in Fed policy is at just 8% while the majority of investors and analysts believe the Fed will not change any rates but continue to monitor the economic signals. Historically we should expect today to end higher ahead of tomorrow’s Fed decision.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
8:30 Empire State manufacturing survey was worse than estimated coming in at -16
Tuesday:
8:30 Retail sale are estimated to drop to -0.6% from 0.1%
8:30 Import price index is estimated to drop to -0.1% from 0.1%
9:15 Industrial production is estimated to drop to -0.1% from 0.0%
9:15 Capacity utilization is estimated to remain unchanged at 77.7%
10:00 Business inventories are estimated to drop slightly to 0.0% from 0.1% prior
10:00 Home builder confidence index is estimated to rise to 35 from 34
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