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Stock Market Outlook for Tue Jun 11 2024 – Choppy, Dip Possible But Still Up

Jun 11, 2024 | Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook choppy dips like but up

Prior Trading Day Summary:

On Monday stocks opened lower at 5331 but immediately found buyers. The ensuing rally lasted into the lunch hour and then saw further selling. But when the selling failed to revisit the morning opening low the SPX moved higher and closed up 13 points to a new closing high of 5360.

The NASDAQ rose 59 points and saw a new closing high of 59 points ending the day at 17,192.

Of some concern is the growing number of new 52 week lows. On Monday the SPX had 59 new lows and the NASDAQ 173. For the NASDAQ that is the largest number of 52 week lows since April 25.

Let review the closing technical signals from Mon Jun 10 2024 to see what to expect for Tue Jun 11 2024.


Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Mon Jun 10 2024

The index closed above the 21 day moving average, near the Upper Bollinger Band. This is bullish.

The closing candlestick is bullish.

The 21 day moving average is still climbing continuing the latest up signal.

The 50 day moving average is climbing which is bullish.

The 200 day moving average is still climbing. The 200 day is at 4876 which is bullish and the 100 day is also climbing to 5091.

The Lower Bollinger Band is above the 50 day moving average. The Upper Bollinger Band is turned higher as the SPX is in a Bollinger Bands Squeeze.

The S&P chart is bullish and the Bollinger Bands Squeeze looks like stocks will move higher out of the squeeze.

SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Mon Jun 10 2024 – chart courtesy TradingView


Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review

Momentum: Momentum is falling and positive.

  • Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.
MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Thu Jun 6 2024. On Mon Jun 10 2024 the up signal was stronger. The MACD histogram gained strength.

  • Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. 
Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising and positive.

  • Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.
Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a neutral signal in place and is overbought.

  • Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.
Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising and positive.

  • Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor.  It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.
Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling signaling that Tuesday will see some selling.

  • Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.

Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels

5400 is resistance
5375 is resistance
5350 is resistance
5325 is resistance
5310 is resistance
5300 is resistance
5275 is resistance
5250 is light support
5225 is light support
5200 is good support
5190 is light support
5175 is light support
5150 is support
5125 is support
5115 is support
5100 is support


Stock Market Outlook for Tue Jun 11 2024 

For Tuesday investors should expect some volatility but a slightly higher close ahead of Wednesday’s Fed interest rate decision is likely.


Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events

This is a big week for economic numbers.

Monday:

No reports

Tuesday:

No reports

 






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