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Stock Market Outlook for Tue Jul 9 2024 – Confirmed MACD Up Signal But Bearish Day

Jul 9, 2024 | Stock Market Outlook

Prior Trading Day Summary:

On Monday the S&P faced a see-saw day with stocks ending slightly higher by the close.

The SPX rose 5 points to close at 5572, another new closing high.

The NASDAQ also rose, climbing 51 points to end the day at 18,403, also a new closing high.

Let’s review the technical indicators from the close on Mon Jul 8 2024 to see what to expect on Tue Jul 9 2024.


Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Mon Jul 8 2024

The index closed above the 21 day moving average and at the Upper Bollinger Band, at a new high.

The closing candlestick though indicates the index is very overbought and will dip on Tuesday.

The 21 day moving average is still climbing continuing the latest up signal.

The 50 day moving average is climbing which is bullish.

The 200 day moving average is still climbing. The 200 day is at 4975 which is bullish and the 100 day is also climbing to 5208..

The Lower Bollinger Band moved higher above the 50 day moving average which is bullish. The Upper Bollinger Band is turning higher which is also bullish.

The S&P chart is more bullish than bearish for Tuesday.

SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Mon Jul 8 2024


Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review

Momentum: Momentum is rising and positive.

  • Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.
MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Friday July 5. On Mon Jul 8 2024 the indicator shows a strong uptrend as developing.

  • Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. 
Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising and positive. It is overbought.

  • Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.
Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place and is overbought.

  • Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.
Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising and positive. It is overbought.

  • Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor.  It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.
Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling signaling that Tuesday will end lower.

  • Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.

Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels

5600 is resistance
5575 is resistance
5550 is resistance
5520 is resistance
5500 is resistance
5490 is resistance
5475 is resistance
5465 is resistance
5450 is resistance
5425 is resistance
5400 is support
5375 is support
5350 is support
5325 is support
5310 is support
5300 is support
5275 is support
5250 is light support
5225 is light support


Stock Market Outlook for Tue Jul 9 2024 

For Tuesday the technical indicators are showing a strong bias to overbought and the market, due for a rest.

Watch for dips today which could, at times, be deeper than anticipated.

Thank you – 4th of July Independence Day Membership Special

Thank you to all those investors who showed confidence in FullyInformed.com by buying a membership or extending an existing one. The 4th of July Special is over.


Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events

The biggest economic events this week are Fed Chair Powell’s House testimony on Wednesday, CPI numbers on Thursday and PPI numbers of Friday.

Monday:

3:00 Consumer credit was expected to come in at $8 billion, but came in at $11.4 billion which shows strength from consumers.

Tuesday:

6:00 NFIB optimism index which is expected to remain flat at 90.3

10:00 Fed Chair Powell testifies to congress






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