Stock Market Outlook for Tue Jul 30 2019 – Higher Ahead Of The Fed

On Monday the S&P trended mainly sideways, closing down just 5 points, two days ahead of the Fed’s announcement on interest rates.

Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Mon Jul 29 2019 

The SPX chart is reasonably bullish although the closing candlestick is bearish for Tuesday.

As well, you can clearly see the Bollinger Bands Squeeze now forming up.

The index closed above the 21 day moving average.

The 50 day moving average is still above the 2900 level and the 100 day is not far behind. The 200 day is approaching 2850.

All the major moving averages are moving higher.

Stock Market Outlook review of Mon Jul 29 2019

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:

Momentum: Momentum is positive and moving sideways.

• Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.

MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Thursday July 18. The down signal was weak again on Monday.

• Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. 

Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator signal is positive moving sideways.

• Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.

Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic signal has a neutral signal in place and is signaling overbought.

• Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.

Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is moving sideways.

• Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor.  It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.

Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling as the index is not going “anywhere”.

• Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.

Support and Resistance Levels To Be Aware Of:

3000 is resistance

2950 is light support

2900 is light support

2860 is better support

2830 is light support

2800 is strong support

2795 is light support

2745 to 2750 is light support

2725 is light support

2700 is light support

2675 is light support

2650 is support

2625 is light support

2600 is support.

 Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Tue Jul 30 2019 

The technical indicators are showing us a market that is stuck as we head toward the Fed’s decision on interest rates, due out on Wednesday at 2:00 PM.

A rate cut is overwhelmingly expected. A quarter point cut may not move the market much higher but a half point cut will jump start the rally.

For Tuesday stocks will move primarily sideways for a second day.

We should see a weak start to the day but end with a stronger close near the last hour and a half. Investors normally buy the index late in the day, on the day before interest rate decisions are announced. That would make Tuesday a positive day for the S&P.

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