Monday saw stocks trending slightly bearish but the S&P managed a slight gain of 5 points while the NASDAQ closed down 51 points.
After hours on Monday, Walmart announced lower expectations for the next quarter earnings which sent the stock lower after the close. This will impact retail and probably much of the market on Tuesday ahead of the Fed’s interest rate announcement on Wednesday.
Let’s review the closing technical indicators from Monday to see what to expect for Tue Jul 26 2022.
Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Mon Jul 25 2022
The closing candlestick is bearish for Tuesday but still closed above the 50 day moving average for the fifth day. It closed below the Upper Bollinger Band for a second day which is a bearish signal.
The 21 day moving average is turning sideways which is bearish.
The Upper Bollinger Band is rising and is above the 50 day moving average which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is trending sideways, indicating the rally is slowing. The Bollinger Bands Squeeze appears to be pushing for higher stock prices, which is bullish.
All the moving averages are falling except the 21 day.
There are 4 down signals still in place and there have been no up signals since the start of April.
The chart is 55% bearish for Tuesday.
Stock Market Outlook review of Mon Jul 25 2022
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:
Momentum: Momentum is rising and positive.
- Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.
MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Monday June 27. On Monday the up signal still had strength and the histogram was improved.
- Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9.
Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising and back near overbought.
- Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.
Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a down signal in place for Tuesday.
Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.
Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is unchanged and positive. It is no longer overbought.
- Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor. It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.
Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling and positive.
- Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.
Support and Resistance Levels To Be Aware Of:
4200 is light resistance
4150 is light resistance
4100 is light resistance
4050 is light resistance
4025 is light resistance
4000 is strong resistance
3975 is light resistance and is a decline of 17.5%
3900 is light support and is a decline of 19%
3850 is light support and is a decline of 20%
3825 is light resistance.
3800 is good support.
3775 is light support
3750 is light support
3730 is light support
3700 is good support
3675 is light support
3650 is light support
3625 is light support
3600 is good support and is a decline of 25%
Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Tue Jul 26 2022
For Tuesday the technical indicators are pointing to a choppy day for Tuesday. The drop in Walmart stock after hours is sure to bleed into Tuesday’s open and will affect other retailers such as Target Stock.
With the Fed’s decision on interest rates due out on Wednesday, Tuesday will show more weakness and close lower.
Potential Market Moving Events
This is a very busy week with a number of market moving events including the next Fed funds rate increase due on Wednesday at 2:00 PM.
Monday:
8:30 Chicago Fed national activity index was unchanged at negative 0.19.
Tuesday:
9:00 S&P Case-Shiller national home price index
10:00 Consumer confidence index
10:00 New Home Sales
Stock Market Outlook Archives
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Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue May 5 2026
Stock Market Outlook For Tue May 5 2026 – Overbought and Lower
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Stock Market Outlook For Fri May 1 2026 – Overbought But Higher
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Apr 30 2026
Stock Market Outlook For Thu Apr 30 2026 – Dips Likely Possible Lower Close
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Apr 29 2026
Stock Market Outlook For Wed Apr 29 2026 – Choppy But Higher Ahead Of More Earnings
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Apr 28 2026
