Day’s Summary
Monday July 17 saw stocks continue their advance, closing at another new 52 week high.
The SPX closed up 17 points to 4522. The NASDAQ rose 131 points to end the day at 14245.
Trading volume on the SPX dipped lower while volume on the NASDAQ remained around average.
Both indexes are showing signs of being overbought with more dips likely to come.
Let’s review the technical indicators from the close on Monday to see what we should expect for Tue Jul 18 2023.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Mon Jul 17 2023
The index closed at the Upper Bollinger Band and all moving averages which is bullish.
The closing candlestick on Monday is bullish for Tuesday but also is signaling the index is overbought, seen by the two shadows (tail and head) in the closing candlestick.
The 21, 50, 100 and 200 day moving averages are continuing to climb which is bullish. The SPX is still in a Bollinger Bands Squeeze but the Lower Bollinger Band is falling while the Upper Bollinger Band is rising. We may see the Bollinger Bands Squeeze end this week.
Stock Market Outlook review of Mon Jul 17 2023
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is falling and positive.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Thursday Jul 13. The up signal was stronger on Monday.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling after reaching overbought levels.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a weak up signal in place. It is overbought.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising and overbought.
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Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising which indicates a bigger move might be coming on Tuesday or Wednesday.
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Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 4550 is resistance |
| 4525 is resistance |
| 4500 is resistance |
| 4485 is resistance |
| 4470 is resistance |
| 4450 is resistance |
| 4435 is resistance |
| 4420 is resistance |
| 4400 is strong resistance |
| 4390 is resistance |
| 4370 is resistance |
| 4350 is support |
| 4340 is support |
| 4325 is support |
| 4310 is support |
| 4300 is support |
| 4290 is support |
| 4275 is support |
| 4250 is support |
| 4240 is support |
| 4225 is support |
| 4210 is support |
| 4200 is good support |
Stock Market Outlook for Tue Jul 18 2023
For Tuesday the technical indicators are signaling overbought and most are showing signs of a dip coming. Despite this there is still a good chance that any dip will find ready buyers who are worried about missing out on the rally. That could mean any dips on Tuesday will be short-lived.
Watch for weakness to develop on Tuesday, probably mid to late morning. Following this I would expect another move higher later in the afternoon.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Tuesday:
8:30 Retail sales are expect to rise to 0.5%
8:30 Retail sales minus autos is expected to rise to 0.3%
9:15 Industrial production is expected to be flat at 0
9:15 Capacity utilization is expected to be unchanged at 79.5%
10:00 Business Inventories
10:00 Home builder confidence index is expect to be unchanged at 0.2%