Prior Trading Day Summary:
On Mon Jul 14 2025 stocks traded in a fairly tight range but managed to squeak out a gain by the close as investors prepared for bank earnings due out this morning.
The SPX rose 9 points to close at 6268 on 4.7 billion shares traded.
The NASDAQ closed up 55 points to 20,640 on 8.2 billion shares traded.
Let’s review the technical indicators at the close on Mon Jul 14 2025 to see what they predict for Tue Jul 15 2025.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Mon Jul 14 2025
The index closed below the Upper Bollinger Band for the 6th day but is still trending more sideways than down which is still bullish.
The closing candlestick is bullish for Tuesday.
The 21 day moving average is rising and closed at 6140 which is bullish.
The 50 day moving average is rising and closed at 5977 which is bullish.
The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 5898 which is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is rising and closed at 5781 which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is rising and still below the 50 day moving average but above the 100 day. This is neutral. The Upper Bollinger Band is rising which is bullish.
The SPX chart is more bullish than bearish heading into Tuesday.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Mon Jul 14 2025
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is falling and positive.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Thu June 26. On Mon Jul 14 2025 the up signal was almost entirely gone.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a weak up signal in place.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising.
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| Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising which signals a higher close on Tuesday. Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline. |
Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 6300 is resistance |
| 6250 is resistance |
| 6225 is resistance |
| 6200 is resistance |
| 6175 is resistance |
| 6150 is resistance |
| 6125 is resistance |
| 6100 is resistance |
| 6075 is resistance |
| 6050 is resistance |
| 6025 is resistance |
| 6015 is resistance |
| 6000 is support |
| 5990 is support |
| 5975 is support |
| 5950 is support |
| 5925 is support |
| 5900 is support |
| 5850 is support |
| 5800 is support |
| 5785 is support |
| 5750 is support |
| 5700 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Tue Jul 15 2025
Two events will dictate the market direction for Tuesday. The first is the bank earnings due out before markets open. The estimates are for better earnings than previously predicted.
The second is the Consumer Price Index due out today at 8:30. Analysts believe the numbers will show that tariffs are increasing inflation. However there are many other analysts who believe it will not show inflation rising due to tariffs.
My opinion is that bank earnings will be far better than estimated and the CPI numbers will not be high enough to concern the Fed.
For Tuesday I am expecting a higher close in what will be a very choppy day of trading.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
no events are scheduled
Tuesday:
8:30 Consumer Price Index for June is estimated to rise to 0.3% from 0.1% prior
8:30 CPI year-over-year is estimated to rise to 2.7% from 2.4%
8:30 Core CPI is estimated to remain unchanged at 0.3%
8:30 Core CPI year-over-year is estimated to increase to 3.0% from 2.8% prior.
8:30 Empire State manufacturing survey is estimated to show -9.0, down from -16.0 prior.