Stock Market Outlook for Tue Jan 19 2021 – Coin Toss Day – Unconfirmed Down Signal

The most important signal from Friday was an unconfirmed down signal from MACD.

The SPX ended the day on Friday down 27 points but intraday it fell to the 21 day moving average.

The close was 3768, about 18 points above the intraday low.

Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Fri Jan 15 2021

On Friday the index closed below the Upper Bollinger Band but off the low of the day. The index reached the 21 day at 3750 and bounced to close above it. The closing candlestick though is bearish for Tuesday.

While the Upper Bollinger Band is continuing to rise, the Lower Bollinger Band is starting to turn back up and could move back above the 50 day moving average. This is bearish should it occur.

The major moving averages are still rising and the up signal from Oct 21 is still in play (no longer shown in the chart). The chart is still bullish but there are further bearish signals, as described above.

Stock Market Outlook review of Fri Jan 15 2021

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:

Momentum: Momentum is falling but still positive.

• Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.

MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Dec 7. On Friday it issued an unconfirmed down signal.

• Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. 

Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling and is negative.

• Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.

Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a down signal in place and is still overbought.

Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.

Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling.

• Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor.  It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.

Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is trending lower which often indicates selling may slow.

• Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.

Support and Resistance Levels To Be Aware Of:

3800 is resistance

3750 is resistance

3700 is light support

3600 is strong support

3550 is support

3500 is strong support

3450 is support

3400 is support

3375 is support

3300 is strong support

3275 is support

3200 is support

3150 is support

3050 is support

3000 is strong support

 Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Tue Jan 19 2021 

After Friday’s drop to the 21 day, often we will see another bounce attempt and we could see that on Tuesday. This is a big week for politics and stocks with a new President coming in along with a new cabinet. Often the market will fluctuate and the down signal could be wrong which is why it remains unconfirmed. Investors remain nervous ahead of the start of a new administration just as they were when the last administration came in.

The chance of the SPX ending higher is probably less than lower. If I had to pick a percentage I would saw 40% higher and 60% lower. For the week though we could still see the S&P end higher. Tomorrow though is more likely a coin toss but a large move up or down is not expected.

Stock Market Outlook Archives

Stock Market Outlook for Thu Apr 18 2024 – Deeply Oversold – Bounce Attempt Expected

Prior Trading Day Summary: Wednesday saw a bounce attempt at the open which managed to reach 5078 before selling once again pushed stocks lower. By 12:45 stocks looks almost ready ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Apr 17 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Apr 17 2024 discuss the outlook for a potential bounce on Wednesday. There are trade ideas outlined in Las Vegas ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Wed Apr 17 2024 – Another Bounce Attempt

Prior Trading Day Summary: Tuesday found stocks stuck in a fairly tight trading range as investors remain worried about a potential Israeli retaliatory strike against Iran and what might be ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Apr 16 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Apr 16 2024 discuss the outlook for stocks for Tuesday and the chance of a bounce. There are trade ideas ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Tue Apr 16 2024 – Deeply Oversold

Prior Trading Day Summary: Monday started the day as expected with a massive rally at the open and a push higher especially when retail sales came in stronger than expected. ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon Apr 15 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon Apr 15 2024 discuss the outlook for stocks for Monday as well as the third week as a whole. There ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Mon Apr 15 2024 – Expect A Bounce

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Friday investors got better than expected bank earnings but sold bank stocks lower. The selling extended into other sectors until by the close the indexes ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Apr 12 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Apr 12 2024 discuss the CPI numbers released on Thursday and the outlook for stocks for the remainder of the ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Fri Apr 12 2024 – All About Bank Earnings

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Thursday investors got a bit of good news. First the Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims came in lower than expected at 211,000. If the weekly ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Apr 11 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Apr 11 2024 discuss the PPI numbers due out today before markets open. There are trade ideas outlined in Wells ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Thu Apr 11 2024 – Weakness and Lower

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Wednesday the CPI number was higher than estimates. For many analysts it meant that the Fed would probably delay any rate cut longer than expected. ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Apr 10 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Apr 10 2024 discuss the CPI numbers due out today at 8:30 and the 2:00 PM FOMC minutes.. There are ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Wed Apr 10 2024 – All About The CPI Numbers

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Tuesday the morning saw stocks plunge but not as deep as on Thursday. That brought in the dip buyers who picked through the stocks and ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Apr 9 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Apr 9 2024 discuss Monday's sideways day. There are trade ideas outlined in some portfolios. The morning Investing Strategy Notes ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Tue Apr 9 2024 – Morning Weakness Possible But Higher Close

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Monday low volume and lack of buying interest kept the market trading in a tight range. Some of the decline in volume can be attributed ....... Read More