The most important signal from Friday was an unconfirmed down signal from MACD.
The SPX ended the day on Friday down 27 points but intraday it fell to the 21 day moving average.
The close was 3768, about 18 points above the intraday low.
Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Fri Jan 15 2021
On Friday the index closed below the Upper Bollinger Band but off the low of the day. The index reached the 21 day at 3750 and bounced to close above it. The closing candlestick though is bearish for Tuesday.
While the Upper Bollinger Band is continuing to rise, the Lower Bollinger Band is starting to turn back up and could move back above the 50 day moving average. This is bearish should it occur.
The major moving averages are still rising and the up signal from Oct 21 is still in play (no longer shown in the chart). The chart is still bullish but there are further bearish signals, as described above.
Stock Market Outlook review of Fri Jan 15 2021
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:
Momentum: Momentum is falling but still positive.
- Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.
MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Dec 7. On Friday it issued an unconfirmed down signal.
- Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9.
Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling and is negative.
- Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.
Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a down signal in place and is still overbought.
Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.
Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling.
- Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor. It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.
Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is trending lower which often indicates selling may slow.
- Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.
Support and Resistance Levels To Be Aware Of:
3800 is resistance
3750 is resistance
3700 is light support
3600 is strong support
3550 is support
3500 is strong support
3450 is support
3400 is support
3375 is support
3300 is strong support
3275 is support
3200 is support
3150 is support
3050 is support
3000 is strong support
Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Tue Jan 19 2021
After Friday’s drop to the 21 day, often we will see another bounce attempt and we could see that on Tuesday. This is a big week for politics and stocks with a new President coming in along with a new cabinet. Often the market will fluctuate and the down signal could be wrong which is why it remains unconfirmed. Investors remain nervous ahead of the start of a new administration just as they were when the last administration came in.
The chance of the SPX ending higher is probably less than lower. If I had to pick a percentage I would saw 40% higher and 60% lower. For the week though we could still see the S&P end higher. Tomorrow though is more likely a coin toss but a large move up or down is not expected.
Stock Market Outlook Archives
Stock Market Outlook For Wed May 6 2026 – Choppy But Higher Still
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue May 5 2026
Stock Market Outlook For Tue May 5 2026 – Overbought and Lower
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon May 4 2026
Stock Market Outlook For Mon May 4 2026 – Dips Likely With Possible Lower Close
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri May 1 2026
Stock Market Outlook For Fri May 1 2026 – Overbought But Higher
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Apr 30 2026
Stock Market Outlook For Thu Apr 30 2026 – Dips Likely Possible Lower Close
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Apr 29 2026
Stock Market Outlook For Wed Apr 29 2026 – Choppy But Higher Ahead Of More Earnings
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Apr 28 2026
