Prior Trading Day Summary:
On Friday investors got a mixed result from banks but the PPI dipped further in December and that was enough to keep the rally intact.
Friday saw the S&P close up 3 points but on just 3.5 billion shares traded.
The NASDAQ rose just 2 points to close at 14,972 on 5 billion shares traded.
The lack of volume before a long weekend is typical for the S&P. The NASDAQ continues to have good volumes.
Let’s review Fri Jan 12 2024 closing technical indicators to see what to expect for the start of the third week of January.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Fri Jan 12 2024
The index closed above the 21 day and just below the Upper Bollinger Band after touching it intraday for another new 52 week intraday high. This is bullish.
The 21 day moving average is rising which is bullish.
The closing candlestick is bullish for the start of the week.
The 50 day moving average is above the 100 day and still climbing which is bullish.
The 100 and 200 day moving averages are climbing which is bullish. The 200 day is moving above the 4400 on the SPX which is bullish.
The Bollinger Bands Squeeze is well underway without a clear signal either up or down for stocks coming out of the squeeze.
The S&P chart is bullish for Tuesday with one unknown, the Bollinger Bands Squeeze.
Stock Market Outlook review of Fri Jan 12 2024
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is unchanged and slightly positive.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Tue Jan 2. The down signal lost strength on Friday.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising and positive. It is near overbought.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place and is entering overbought readings.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is unchanged and positive. It is sitting just below overbought signals.
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Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling and positive. It is signaling stocks could slip on Tuesday.
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Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 4815 is resistance |
| 4800 is resistance |
| 4780 is resistance |
| 4750 is resistance |
| 4720 is resistance |
| 4700 is resistance |
| 4675 is support |
| 4650 is support |
| 4625 is support |
| 4600 is support |
| 4590 is support |
| 4575 is light support |
| 4565 is light support |
| 4550 is support |
| 4535 is support |
| 4520 is support |
| 4500 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Tue Jan 16 2024
For Tuesday the technical signals are a mixed but only one is negative, the Moving Average Convergence / Divergence and it is continuing to lose strength in the down signal. The Bollinger Bands Squeeze looks ready to push stocks to a new high but there is still not a clear signal to the upside or downside.
A number of the indicators are near overbought signals but there is still room to rise before stocks are overbought again.
Overall the signals continue to support the bull case. Tuesday could open lower but the close should be higher.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
The main economic reports this week are on retail sales on Wednesday along with the latest Fed Beige Book. Friday is consumer sentiment. More banks earnings arrive this week.
Tuesday:
8:30 Empire state manufacturing survey is expected to rise to -4.0 from -14.5 previously.