Prior Trading Day Summary:
On Monday stocks reacted negatively to news of President Trump placing tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China. By the end of the day the news had changed to a 30 day pause for Mexico and Canada in tariffs being implemented. Stocks moved back from their morning plunge but there were still losses. The SPX lost 46 points to close at 5994. The NASDAQ fell 235 points to close at 19,391.
Even with stocks recovering from the early morning selling, stocks were decidedly bearish even by the close with 58% of the SPX stocks falling and 69% of NASDAQ stocks moving lower.
The selling changed many of the technical indicators for Tuesday.
Let’s review the technical indicators at the close on Mon Feb 3 2025 to see what to expect for Tue Feb 4 2025.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Mon Feb 3 2025
The index closed below the 50 and 21 day moving averages. This is bearish.
The closing candlestick has two long shadows. This is a signal of indecision on the part of investors for Tuesday.
The 21 day moving average is rising and closed at 5980 but it is still trading below the 50 day which is bearish. The 21 day might cross above the 50 day this week for what would be an up signal.
The 50 day moving average is rising and closed unchanged at 5994 which is bullish.
The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 5867 which is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is rising and closed at 5639 which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is rising which is neutral at present. The Upper Bollinger Band is turning sideways which is neutral.
For Tuesday the SPX chart is more bearish than bullish.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Mon Feb 3 2025
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is falling and negative.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Fri Jan 17 2025. The up signal was weaker on Mon Feb 3 2025 and could issue a down signal shortly.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a down signal in place.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling.
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Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling and signaling Tuesday will end higher.
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Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 6125 is resistance |
| 6100 is strong resistance |
| 6090 is resistance |
| 6070 is resistance |
| 6050 is resistance |
| 6025 is resistance |
| 6015 is resistance |
| 6000 is resistance |
| 5990 is resistance |
| 5970 is resistance |
| 5950 is support |
| 5900 is support |
| 5890 is support |
| 5875 is support |
| 5850 is support |
| 5830 is support |
| 5800 is support |
| 5780 is support |
| 5725 is support |
| 5700 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Tue Feb 4 2025
For Tuesday the economic indicators are shifting back to weakness and lower signals.
On Monday the economic reports were better than estimated which would have cheered the market if not for the tariff worries.
On Tuesday expect some attempt in the morning to push stocks higher but they will fail and the day will end lower for stocks.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
9:45 S&P final manufacturing PMI for 2024 came in higher than estimated at 31.2
10:00 Construction spendin was higher than estimated at 0.5%
10:00 ISM manufacturing was higher than estimated at 50.9%
Intraday: Autosales were lower than estimated at 16.8 million vehicles
Tuesday:
10:00 Job openings are estimated to dip slightly to 8.0 million from 8.1 million prior.
10:00 Factory orders are estimated to have fallen to -0.8%