Prior Trading Day Summary:
On Friday Feb 14 US retail sales came in much lower than expected at -0.9% which was well below estimates and below the December reading of 0.2%. With retail sales showing some contraction investors decided to sell out of various retail stocks. 54% of all stocks on the SPX were still rising by the end of the day with the index ending with a flat close at 6114. The NASDAQ closed up 81 points back above 20,000 with the first close above it since Jan 23.
With a shortened week ahead, let’s review the technical indicators from the close on Fri Feb 14 to see what to expect for Tue Feb 18 2025.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Fri Feb 14 2025
The index closed above all moving averages and within a handful of points of the all-time closing higher. This is bullish.
The closing candlestick is signaling weakness intraday on Tuesday but a probable higher close.
The 21 day moving average is continuing to move above the 50 day moving average which is a major up signal.
The 21 day moving average is rising and closed at 6054 which is bullish.
The 50 day moving average is rising and closed at 6007 which is bullish.
The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 5900 which is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is rising and closed at 5676 which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is rising which is bullish. The Upper Bollinger Band is trending sideways. A Bollinger Bands Squeeze is underway to start the week. There is a good chance the squeeze will end with stocks climbing.
For Tuesday the SPX chart is bullish.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Fri Feb 14 2025
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is rising and positive..
|
MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Fri Jan 17 2025. The up signal gained strength on Fri Feb 14.
|
Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising sharply.
|
Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place and nearing overbought readings.
|
Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising and nearing overbought readings.
|
Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling, signaling Tuesday will lend lower.
|
Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 6125 is resistance |
| 6100 is strong resistance |
| 6090 is resistance |
| 6070 is resistance |
| 6050 is resistance |
| 6025 is resistance |
| 6015 is resistance |
| 6000 is resistance |
| 5990 is support |
| 5970 is support |
| 5950 is support |
| 5900 is support |
| 5890 is support |
| 5875 is support |
| 5850 is support |
| 5830 is support |
| 5800 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Tue Feb 18 2025
For Tuesday the technical signals are gaining strength to the upside. Two of the signals are nearing overbought readings. The morning could see some weakness but the close will be higher.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
No events
Tuesday:
8:30 Empire State manufacturing survey is estimated to rise to -1.0 from -12.6
10:00 Home builder confidence index is expected to dip slightly to 46 from 47