Prior Trading Day Summary:
On Monday stocks rose initially but again on low volume. Another new all-time high was made of 5048 before sellers stepped in and send the index down to 5021 for a loss of 5 points.
The NASDAQ had excellent volume of 5.5 billion shares traded. It closed down 48 points at 15,942.
On Tuesday investors get the latest CPI numbers which investors hope show inflation slowing but many worry may show the opposite.
Let’s review Monday’s closing technical indicators to see what to expect for Tue Feb 13 2024 although the CPI numbers should be the determining event for Tuesday’s market direction.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Mon Feb 12 2024
The index closed at the Upper Bollinger Band which is bullish.
The closing candlestick is bearish for Tuesday and signaling index is overbought.
The 21 day moving average is moving higher which is bullish. It is above the 4880 valuation.
The 50 day moving average is rising and nearing 4800 which is bullish.
The 100 and 200 day moving averages are climbing which is bullish. The 200 day is at 4500 on the SPX which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is rising as is the Upper Bollinger Band. At present this is bullish.
The S&P chart is bullish for Tuesday and overbought.
Stock Market Outlook review of Mon Feb 12 2024
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is falling and positive.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Tue Jan 23 2024. On Fri Feb 9 2024 the up signal lost strength.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling and positive. It is overbought.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a down signal in place and is overbought.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling and positive. It is overbought.
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Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is unchanged signaling not much change is expected on Tuesday.
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Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 5050 is resistance |
| 5025 is resistance |
| 5010 is resistance |
| 5000 is resistance |
| 4990 is resistance |
| 4975 is resistance |
| 4950 is resistance |
| 4925 is resistance |
| 4915 is resistance |
| 4900 is resistance |
| 4875 is resistance |
| 4850 is resistance |
| 4825 is support |
| 4815 is support |
| 4800 is support |
| 4780 is support |
| 4750 is support |
| 4720 is support |
| 4700 is support |
| 4675 is support |
| 4650 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Tue Feb 13 2024
The technical indicators have quickly shifted to a bearish stance after the index made a new all-time high but then gave it back on low volume. With all the technical indicators changed, Tuesday’s market will depend on the CPI numbers due out before markets open.
If the CPI numbers show inflation picking up, stocks will move lower. If on the other hand the CPI numbers show inflation declining, stocks will move back up.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Inflation on Tuesday with CPI reports and on Thursday a myriad of economic reports will have the most impact this week.
Monday:
No reports that will impact stocks
Tuesday:
8:30 Consumer prince index is expected to drop to 0.2% from 0.3%
8:30 Core CPI is expected to be unchanged at 0.3%
8:30 CPI year-over-year is expected to have fallen to 2.9% from 3.4%
8:30 Core CPI year-over-year is estimated to have fallen to 3.7% from 3.9%