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Stock Market Outlook for Tue Feb 13 2024 – Sideway With Bias Lower

Feb 13, 2024 | Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook sideways bias lowerPrior Trading Day Summary:

On Monday stocks rose initially but again on low volume. Another new all-time high was made of 5048 before sellers stepped in and send the index down to 5021 for a loss of 5 points.

The NASDAQ had excellent volume of 5.5 billion shares traded. It closed down 48 points at 15,942.

On Tuesday investors get the latest CPI numbers which investors hope show inflation slowing but many worry may show the opposite.

Let’s review Monday’s closing technical indicators to see what to expect for Tue Feb 13 2024 although the CPI numbers should be the determining event for Tuesday’s market direction.


Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Mon Feb 12 2024

The index closed at the Upper Bollinger Band which is bullish.

The closing candlestick is bearish for Tuesday and signaling index is overbought.

The 21 day moving average is moving higher which is bullish. It is above the 4880 valuation.

The 50 day moving average is rising and nearing 4800 which is bullish.

The 100 and 200 day moving averages are climbing which is bullish. The 200 day is at 4500 on the SPX which is bullish.

The Lower Bollinger Band is rising as is the Upper Bollinger Band. At present this is bullish.

The S&P chart is bullish for Tuesday and overbought.

Stock Market Outlook review of Mon Feb 12 2024


Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review

Momentum: Momentum is falling and positive.

  • Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.
MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Tue Jan 23 2024. On Fri Feb 9 2024 the up signal lost strength.

  • Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. 
Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling and positive. It is overbought.

  • Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.
Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a down signal in place and is overbought.

  • Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.
Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling and positive. It is overbought.

  • Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor.  It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.
Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is unchanged signaling not much change is expected on Tuesday.

  • Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.

Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels

5050 is resistance
5025 is resistance
5010 is resistance
5000 is resistance
4990 is resistance
4975 is resistance
4950 is resistance
4925 is resistance
4915 is resistance
4900 is resistance
4875 is resistance
4850 is resistance
4825 is support
4815 is support
4800 is support
4780 is support
4750 is support
4720 is support
4700 is support
4675 is support
4650 is support


Stock Market Outlook for Tue Feb 13 2024 

The technical indicators have quickly shifted to a bearish stance after the index made a new all-time high but then gave it back on low volume. With all the technical indicators changed, Tuesday’s market will depend on the CPI numbers due out before markets open.

If the CPI numbers show inflation picking up, stocks will move lower. If on the other hand the CPI numbers show inflation declining, stocks will move back up.


Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events

Inflation on Tuesday with CPI reports and on Thursday a myriad of economic reports will have the most impact this week.

Monday:

No reports that will impact stocks

Tuesday:

8:30 Consumer prince index is expected to drop to 0.2% from 0.3%

8:30 Core CPI is expected to be unchanged at 0.3%

8:30 CPI year-over-year is expected to have fallen to 2.9% from 3.4%

8:30 Core CPI year-over-year is estimated to have fallen to 3.7% from 3.9%






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